Strategic Asia 2008-09: Challenges and Choices

Managing China as a Strategic Challenge

executive summary This chapter evaluates the impact of China’s rise on key areas of U.S. concern over the last eight years and suggests future policy options for the next administration. main argument: Though the U.S. and China have been cooperating to improve economic relations, combat terrorism, counter nuclear proliferation, and mitigate nontraditional security threats, the two states are also strongly involved in efforts to hedge against one another in ways that could lead to regional instability. Washington’s ability to protect key areas of concern will require fashioning sophisticated policy approaches to Beijing that both enhance mutual incentives for positive-sum outcomes and avoid political manipulation by domestic groups in both countries. policy implications: • The U.S. can neither afford nor will likely gain from a policy of sharp confrontation, public criticism, and high pressure designed to “compel” Beijing to cooperate more or to capitulate on issues. • The U.S. would benefit from maintaining a steady focus on dialogue and negotiation with China, accompanied by persistent efforts to deter, dissuade, reassure, and enmesh. • Also of benefit would be if the U.S. clarified its preferential type of security architecture in the Asia-Pacific and worked with China and other Asian powers to build such an architecture. • Gaining support from domestic constituencies in the U.S. for a more constructive relationship with China would be more likely if the next administration were to explain more fully why such a relationship is in the interest of the U.S. China Michael D. Swaine is Senior Associate with the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He can be reached at . The author would like to thank Stephanie Renzi, program manager at The National Bureau of Asian Research, and Wayne Chen, former junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for their contributions and assistance in the preparation of this chapter. Managing China as a Strategic Challenge Michael D. Swaine During the past several decades, and particularly during the tenure of the George W. Bush administration, the dynamic economic growth, expanding capabilities, and deepening involvement of China (also known as the People’s Republic of China, PRC) in a wide range of regional and global policy arenas have presented significant challenges and opportunities for Washington regarding many issues of critical national interest. From a strategic perspective, China’s growing presence and influence is particularly significant in three key areas. First and foremost, Beijing’s rapidly expanding military, economic, and political presence in the western Pacific is altering the distribution of power in ways that could produce destabilizing security competition between China and other major powers nearby and aggravate sensitive regional hot spots such as Taiwan. More generally, China’s presence could challenge the ability of the United States to continue playing its long-standing role as the dominant maritime security actor in the region. At the same time, the accelerating regional trend toward more extensive levels of multilateral security and economic relations presents opportunities for greater strategic cooperation among the major powers, with Beijing potentially playing an expanding role. Second, China’s growing impact on bilateral and multilateral patterns of trade, technology, investment, and energy flows and supplies presents major implications, both positive and negative, not only for future economic stability and prosperity in Asia and beyond but also for the domestic U.S. economy. 72 • Strategic Asia 2008–09 Such factors pose obvious security consequences for the United States and its allies. Third, China’s overall willingness and ability to cooperate with the United States and other developed powers on WMD proliferation and nontraditional security threats, such as pandemics and environmental degradation, can vitally affect the evolution of international regimes in these two critical security-related areas. In all three policy arenas China could become either an obstacle or an asset to the attainment of U.S. objectives and the protection of U.S. strategic interests, especially in Asia.1 China’s growing capabilities and influence serve not only to raise the stakes involved in Washington’s strategic relations with Beijing and other powers but also to deepen and expand the types of interaction required to cope with and benefit from China’s emergence. In order to manage this highly dynamic strategic situation effectively, it may no longer be possible for Washington to focus primarily on intensifying engagement efforts with Beijing while also hedging against adverse developments by strengthening or expanding key long-standing...