Strategic Asia 2008-09: Challenges and Choices

Preface

Preface Richard J. Ellings Strategic Asia 2008–09: Challenges and Choices is the eighth in the series of annual assessments produced by NBR’s Strategic Asia Program. In the context of a U.S. presidential election year, the timeliness of this year’s volume underscores the elemental decisions on Asia facing the next U.S. president. The last eight years have witnessed dramatic, transformative forces that have propelled the emergence of Asia as the new global center of gravity. China’s growth trajectory and Asia’s market magnetism are raising the stakes of competition for capital, capabilities, and capacity-building. For the new U.S. administration, policymakers, and analysts, understanding the impact of a more Asia-centric world on vital U.S. interests requires assessing how the United States might engage Asian powers in ways conducive to global economic growth and political stability. This year’s volume seeks to illuminate the complex variables and vectors fueling Asia’s growing influence and how they factor into current and alternative policy options for the incoming U.S. administration. In contrast to previous volumes, the content of this year’s book is presented within the framework of a U.S. presidential leadership transition and the impending changes that such a transfer of power entails. Deciding how to marshal the components of national power for the next phase of U.S. relations with key Asian states will be critical. Foremost on the Asia policy agenda will be China and India. The United States’ relationships with both countries have grown stronger, though uncertainties persist with each. The most enduring of U.S.-China issues is Taiwan. Although the Taiwan Strait remains a potential flashpoint in spite of the election of Nationalist Ma Ying-jeou in March 2008, China and Taiwan are forging a less confrontational, and probably more stable, relationship. This should bode well for U.S.-China diplomacy. On the other hand, U.S.-China trade relations will likely become increasingly complex x • Strategic Asia 2008–09 as the din of protectionists is apt to grow louder in either country as economies weaken. Similarly, uncertainties persist in U.S.-India relations. Although India has become a key U.S. strategic partner in the region, New Delhi will most likely continue to pursue an independent foreign policy. At the same time, China and India are increasingly competitive in areas where others, including most notably the United States, have held a preeminent position. India and China are rapidly catching up to or, in some sectors, surpassing the United States in manufacturing especially and to a lesser extent in innovation and services trade. In the international arena, a decline in U.S. supremacy in these areas could have an impact on U.S. trade and security interests; on the domestic front, it may affect U.S. economic growth and employment rates. Amid these developments fueled by globalization, the American public has become increasingly vested in U.S. policy toward Asia. Americans now come into contact with Asian states on a daily basis through exposure to the plethora of Asian goods and services in the U.S. market, the strength of Asian liquidity in global capital markets, Asian immigrants and visitors, and the endless stream of media coverage on the region. Debating U.S. policy toward Asian states is no longer the reserve of foreign policy specialists and government officials; Asia’s global reach has been parlayed into the discourse of local politics across the United States. If not carefully managed, American public opinion could easily exacerbate U.S. policymakers’ ability to implement sound foreign policy toward Asia. The 2007 pet food and toy scare and subsequent legislation on product quality standards for imports is but one example of the American populace shaping U.S. foreign policy toward Asia. The new U.S. administration will also need to be prepared to handle potential crises in Asia stemming from unstable regimes, the threat of terrorism, efforts to acquire WMD, heightened competition for natural resources, and nontraditional security concerns. Ending the nuclear crisis in North Korea will likely require a long-term solution that will in essence define the region’s security architecture and may resuscitate regime change in the North. Managing Iran’s growing orientation toward Asia and the ongoing Iranian nuclear imbroglio remains a strategic imperative. This is as much an Asian issue as an Atlantic one. Price increases in oil and other natural resources have accentuated tension over disputed claims and have fostered deeper economic linkages between...