Strategic Asia 2008-09: Challenges and Choices

Military Power Projection in Asia

executive summary This chapter examines the military power projection capabilities and policies of four major states in the Asia-Pacific region—the U.S., China, Japan, and India—and draws implications for the U.S. main argument: Despite the military modernization programs underway in the region, the power projection capabilities of China, Japan, and India will remain limited and their policies restrained. The U.S., which possesses the dominant force projection capabilities in Asia, is modernizing its forces and seems committed to continue using them in a restrained manner, often in support of the common good. Long-standing Asian flashpoints are contained, and future contentious issues do not seem susceptible to settlement by military force. Thus, rather than initiating a scramble for power and influence in the region, the major nations in Asia seem more likely to use their power projection capabilities for symbolic purposes, and there are encouraging signs that these countries are considering more multilateral cooperative operations. policy implications: • China, India, and Japan will not match the power projection capability of the U.S. These countries are, however, all developing the ability to deploy forces with the military capacity to threaten U.S. power projection task groups. In the event of crises in which their interests differed from those of the U.S., these countries could demand to play a role. • A scramble for power and influence among major Asian powers would be likely if a drawdown of the U.S. forward-deployed military presence occurs in Asia. • Encouraging Asian governments to concentrate on the positive and cooperative uses of power projection capabilities for the common good will help counter internal advocates who call for more aggressive and nationalist policies. Such encouragement would promote habits of cooperation that support peaceful development. Military Power Dennis C. Blair holds the John M. Shalikashvili Chair in National Security Studies at The National Bureau of Asian Research. He can be reached at . Military Power Projection in Asia Dennis C. Blair Major power war in Asia is a mercifully remote possibility today. The two flashpoints remaining from prior wars—the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait—are contained by a stable structure of mutually understood policy declarations and deterrent military forces. Despite border incursions and clashes, the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India is similarly stable, and the development of nuclear weapons by both these countries has further reduced the likelihood of full-scale war between them. There remain land border disputes, notably those between China and India, and conflicting economic claims in the South and East China seas, but these disputes have not generated protracted tensions and sustained arms races among the claimants. The instincts of Asian governments tend increasingly toward peaceful resolution of differences. Growing military power projection capabilities and the potential for more assertive policies by China, Japan, and India darken this bright picture. These countries have neither had expansive ambitions to extend their territories and influence far from their shores nor possessed substantial military forces that could assert influence at a distance. The United States— the only country with such a capability—has, since the end of the Vietnam War, used military power in a restrained manner. Other countries in the region have generally recognized the common good this U.S. policy provides, and the sheer size of the U.S. dominance in power projection capability in Asia has discouraged competition. In recent years, however, China, India, and Japan have all begun to consider developing increased military capability to influence more distant events. Military programs are under development in each of these countries that could, in time, provide deployable task forces for overseas operations. 392 • Strategic Asia 2008–09 Developments in China are of special concern. China’s recent increases in military spending have been the largest in the region, and the country’s even more rapidly increasing economic power has caused widespread concern over China’s ambitions for influence beyond its borders. Should the major countries of Asia develop power projection forces and pursue more active unilateral military diplomacy in Asia, such a shift would change the peaceful nature of the region and cause greater suspicion, political competition, and even conflict. Though not inevitably leading to major conflict, such increased diplomacy would certainly increase tension in the region, raising mistrust and worst-case fears. Disputes that are now deferred or handled by negotiation could become catalysts for military confrontation. The nations of Asia would look to...