Strategic Asia 2008-09: Challenges and Choices

The Korean Peninsula in U.S. Strategy: Policy Issues for the Next President

executive summary This chapter assesses U.S. strategy on Korea and proposes a policy agenda for the next administration. main argument: Three main issues will define future U.S. strategy on the Korean Peninsula: (1) changes in South Korean views of North Korea and their implications for U.S.-ROK relations; (2) North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, systemic decline, and the consequences for nonproliferation strategy and regional diplomacy; and (3) South Korea’s increasing economic and military capabilities, their effects on regional geopolitics, and U.S. perceptions of long-term U.S.-ROK defense relations. policy implications: • The calls of South Korea’s new government for closer relations with the U.S. enhance the prospects for effective policy management and redefinition of alliance goals. The U.S. cannot, however, assume automatic policy congruence with South Korea. Competing strains of Korean nationalism could also prove a limiting factor in bilateral relations. • The risks posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and internal vulnerabilities remain palpable. The U.S. (in consultation with regional actors) would benefit from mitigating these risks, increasing access into North Korea, and managing the potential for disruptive change. • U.S. policy toward North Korea will be most effective if it simultaneously addresses regional stability and nonproliferation; policy outcomes skewed to a single objective will be incomplete and quite possibly unworkable. It is important that the U.S. impart unequivocally to Pyongyang that full relations with the outside world will not be possible if North Korea seeks to retain its nuclear capabilities. • The U.S. will want to give increased attention to a multilateral peace and security mechanism but only if non-adversarial relations among all states prove possible. Korea The Korean Peninsula in U.S. Strategy: Policy Issues for the Next President Jonathan D. Pollack This chapter addresses U.S. strategy on the Korean Peninsula and identifies a policy agenda for the next administration. The commitment of South Korea’s new president, Lee Myung-bak, to closer relations with Washington enables the United States to weigh future policy options in more comprehensive terms. What are the risks and opportunities for U.S. interests? What would be the goals of a reconfigured alliance? Where might Korea—North as well as South—fit in U.S. conceptions of Northeast Asia in the longer run? The existence of separate Korean states—each with starkly divergent histories, national identities, and development paths—has long defined U.S. policy. Past history, however, should not inhibit consideration of future strategic possibilities. The Republic of Korea (ROK) is a major ally of the United States and an increasingly consequential international actor, but there are major disagreements within South Korea on its longer-term political and strategic identity. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to pose major risks to U.S., South Korean, and regional security interests. Although the DPRK asserts that it seeks a transformed relationship with the United States, it is both a nuclear-armed state and a system experiencing profound economic and societal decline. Addressing the DPRK’s nuclear weapons capabilities will almost certainly be bequeathed to the next U.S. administration, as will the possibilities of the continued Jonathan D. Pollack is Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and Chairman of the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the Naval War College. He can be reached at . The judgments in this paper are the author’s own and should not be attributed to the Naval War College, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. 136 • Strategic Asia 2008–09 erosion of the North Korean system and its consequences for regional stability. At the same time, the United States must weigh the peninsula’s larger significance to U.S. strategic interests and policy objectives. To assess U.S. policy options, this chapter will focus on four principal issues. First, the chapter will address how the two Koreas define and deliberate their respective strategic identities. The next section will assess the major policy developments of the past decade—concentrating on internal political change in South Korea and the effects of such change on the U.S.ROK alliance, the second North Korean nuclear crisis, and major shifts in the U.S.-ROK defense relationship. Third, the chapter will analyze how South Korea and North Korea view the United States in their underlying strategic calculations. Fourth, the chapter will weigh policy options for the next U.S...