Strategic Asia 2010-11: Asia's Rising Power and America's Continued Purpose

Contents

Contents Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Richard J. Ellings Overview Strategic Asia: Continuing Success with Continuing Risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Ashley J. Tellis An overview of the themes and conclusions of the volume that both highlights how key international trends are affecting Asia and draws implications for U.S. policy. Thematic Studies The Geopolitics of Strategic Asia, 2000–2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Aaron L. Friedberg An examination of a range of possible geopolitical futures for Strategic Asia and an evaluation of the likelihood of each outcome based on the prospective performances of the U.S. and Chinese economies, potential political reform in China, and other factors. Asia and the World Economy in 2030: Growth, Integration, and Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Peter A. Petri An analysis of Asia’s likely economic expansion through 2030, including implications for U.S. policy. Military Modernization in the Asia-Pacific: Assessing New Capabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Richard A. Bitzinger An overview of recent trends in military modernization activities in the Asia-Pacific and how new capabilities will affect regional security. The Rise of Energy and Resource Nationalism in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Mikkal E. Herberg An analysis of Asia’s energy and resource security challenges, how they are contributing to the region’s geopolitical tensions, and the implications for U.S. policies toward energy security and Asia. The Implications of Expanded Nuclear Energy in Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Charles D. Ferguson An assessment of likely trends in nuclear energy and nonproliferation within Asia in the next two decades, including implications for the U.S. Asia’s Security and the Contested Global Commons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Abraham M. Denmark An examination of the importance of the global commons to the Asia-Pacific region and U.S. interests, including the implications of the emergence of new Asian powers in the global commons. Climate Change and Environmental Impact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Richard A. Matthew An exploration of the impacts of climate change in Asia. Asia-Pacific Demographics in 2010–2040: Implications for Strategic Balance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 Nicholas Eberstadt An examination of the prospective impact of demographic changes on the strategic balance in Asia. Politico-Economic and Radical Islamic Challenges to Democracy in Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Sumit Ganguly and Manjeet S. Pardesi An analysis of the prospects for democracy and democratization in Asia. Indicators Strategic Asia by the Numbers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 About the Contributors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 About Strategic Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 ...