Emerging Leaders in East Asia: The Next Generation of Political Leadership in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan

Political Generations in East Asia: The Policy Significance

1 the national bureau of asian research nbr project report | september 2008 Political Generations in East Asia: The Policy Significance Kenneth B. Pyle Kenneth B. Pyle is the Henry M. Jackson Professor of History and Asian Studies at the University of Washington, and Founding President of The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). Dr. Pyle’s most recent book is Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose. He can be reached at . 3 Political Generations in East Asia u Pyle T he contemporary societies of East Asia have experienced more decisive generational change in the last several decades than any other region of the world. Because intergenerational value change is one of history’s locomotives, American policymakers need to accumulate intellectual capital about this process. It is not a subject that has drawn the attention it deserves. With the four states that are the subject of this National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) study—China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan—the United States has its most important bilateral relations. In East Asia, the United States has more sustained military deployments, conducts more trade, and owes more of its national debt than in any other region of the world. Policymakers, seeking to discern the trajectory of change in this region, must consider generational change as a critically important insight into the dynamics that will influence the future politics in these societies. Discerning the consciousness of new generations as they come of age and move toward their time on the stage of history gives indications of the concerns and mindset of the emerging leaders in the region. Generations are one of the producers of historic change. Generations are the creatures of history, but they are also the makers of history. A long-term U.S. strategic approach to East Asia must take account of the massive changes that are shaping the world-view of emerging generations in this region. Understanding the significance of this generational change will provide no simple conclusions that can be readily absorbed and worked into a clear pattern of the future. The reality of contemporary Asia is too complex—it possesses too many historical processes and involves too many causative forces—to permit one view of the future such primacy. But understanding the nature and extent of intergenerational change will sensitize the policymaker to one of the underlying driving forces shaping the future course of politics in this region. Generational change is preeminently a modern phenomenon. Sharp distinctions between generations occur owing to the acceleration of the historical process that is characteristic of the modern world. Ordinarily, we think of a generation as changing every 25 years, but a political generation has dynamics that are not biological. A political generation, as opposed to a biological generation, is determined by major events that shape a distinctive outlook or a characteristic approach to issues among young people living through these events at a formative age. It needs to be emphasized that political generations may not be of common mind. Formative experiences need not lead to a consensus of views. There may be a diversity of viewpoint. There may be debates within a generation. But there is a common concern, a shared sense of problem consciousness, that is shaped by the formative experience that creates a generation. The ever increasing tempo of change since the industrial revolution has produced marked differences in outlook between generations. Americans, with their history of a mobile and open society, have long grown accustomed to this phenomenon. Alexis de Tocqueville observed in the 1830s that generational change mattered less in Europe than it did in the United States, where, he wrote, “each generation is a new people.” Americans saw themselves as freed from the traditional institutions and the deference to age and status that pervaded the old world. “The woof of time is ever being broken and the track of past generations lost,” Tocqueville added. “Those who have gone before are easily forgotten, and no one gives a thought to those who will follow.”1 More recently, Americans have also been accustomed to contrasting their liberal tradition with the conservative traditions of Asian societies. But this contrast is not what it once was. In contemporary East Asia, 1 Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, trans. George Lawrence (New York: Doubleday, Anchor Books, 1969), 507. 4 nbr Project report u September 2008 the rapid tempo of change is disrupting the once smooth transfer of...