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WHERE TO FOR PROVINCIAL EDUCATION? REVIEWING PROVINCIAL EDUCATION BUDGETS, 2006 TO 2012|14| Review of education expenditure 2006/07–2012/13 Table 2 shows the total education expenditure by province from 2009 to 2013. Table 2: Total provincial education budgets, 2009/10 to 2012/13 (ZAR Thousands) Province 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Real change3 between 2009/102010 /11 (%) Real av. ann. change between 2009/102012 /13 (%) Real av. ann. change between 2006/072012 /13 (%) Eastern Cape 21,169,525 22,679,786 24,629,177 25,560,856 1.35 0.54 5.02 Free State 7,937,847 8,539,463 9,206,530 9,655,968 1.774 0.78 3.32 Gauteng 20,178,657 22,485,539 24,925,237 25,885,941 5.42 2.62 7.05 KwaZuluNatal 26,271,374 29,034,762 31,600,250 33,292,209 4.55 2.17 5.57 Limpopo 17,533,619 18,814,610 20,331,454 21,192,616 1.52 0.57 3.99 Mpumalanga 10,803,793 11,530,252 12,516,782 13,262,430 0.97 1.08 6.15 Northern Cape 3,235,273 3,457,789 3,807,606 4,007,313 1.11 1.39 9.03 North West 8,493,135 9,050,791 9,912,258 10,521,350 0.82 1.39 1.19 Western Cape 10,663,812 11,845,691 12,823,254 13,555,684 5.09 2.28 4.71 Total 126,287,035 137,438,683 149,752,548 156,934,367 2.96 1.50 5.00 Source: Provincial Budget Statement 2010 Note: Column 7 reflects data for the 2006/07 to 2012/13 period but we have left out financial years prior to 2009/10 to make the table less busy Expenditure on ‘provincial education’4 is projected to grow from R126.3 billion in 2009/10 to R157 billion at the end of the present MTEF cycle. This represents a real average annual increase of 1.5% over the medium term, while the six-year real average annual increase of the education budget is projected to be 5%. In the current fiscal year, government expenditure on provincial education increased by nearly 3% in real terms, but, due to audits that have to be finalised, this may still change. The slow rate of growth over the present MTEF cycle compared to the six-year aver- age can be directly associated with the strategic decisions that government took to deal with the impact of the global financial crisis. Taking into consideration the six years from 2006 to 2013, Northern Cape sees the largest increase in spending, with real growth sitting at just over 9%, increasing from R1.4 billion in 2006 to R4 billion in 2013. Regardless of the growth in some provinces, North West’s growth barely exceeds 1% over the same six years. North West claims that the lack of growth in the budget is ‘due to re-demarcation of provincial boundaries’ (North West Province Education Vote 2010 MTEF Budget). This has led to a substantial loss in revenue because money originally intended for North West now has to be shared with neighbouring provinces. On the other hand, Northern Cape’s relatively large increase of 9% over the six-year period is partially attributed to a conditional grant that was allocated for public FET. Despite the growth differences among provinces, they have all seen positive expenditure increases over the last six years and will continue to grow in the coming years, although at a much less slower rate. In fact, the province that registers the largest real average increase over the present MTEF is Gauteng (2.6%), while the Western Cape projects to increase expenditure on education by 2.3%. The lowest real average annual growth over the next three years is projected for the Free State, which plans to grow the budget by less than 1%. Transversal5 and programme expenditure analysis For education service-delivery to work, a variety of inputs is needed ranging from qualified teachers, an adequate supply of textbooks, teaching and other learning aids, and a professional teacher body that is capable of using resources in the most effective way. Given this description of the process of delivering education, the composition of education budgets must be carefully scrutinised – if only to assess whether the spending framework is credible to enable genuine service delivery. After 2000, investment in...

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