The Rise and Fall of Intelligence: An International Security History

2 A Revolutionary Age

39 CHAPTER 2 A Revolutionary Age For the first time the entire mechanism of an authoritarian empire’s police repression had fallen into the hands of revolutionaries. —Serge, Memoirs of a Revolutionary I n the days of Napoleon or George Washington, a commander, or even a head of state, could essentially run his own spy network. Not much had altered that possibility since the time of Sunzi and Kautilya, but that was about to change forever. Napoleon lost at Waterloo in 1815 and never fought again, hardly knowing that his armies, and the turmoil they caused, had provided the catalyst for a revolution in the way militaries and even nations would transform the secret services and their operations. By the turn of the twentieth century, the ancient craft of spying was becoming institutionalized in bureaucracies. A generation later, these bureaus were transformed again into something that no one in Washington’s time could have imagined. This new thing sprang into being almost without notice, in response to two world-altering forces. The Industrial Revolution had taken hold in Europe and North America and was spreading across the Earth. At the same time, the misery and dislocation in its wake stirred passions and intellects , with no small number of radicals proclaiming that only violent struggle could halt political and economic oppression. New ways of gathering information and of influencing events by stealth were fashioned to meet the needs of states to combat technologically enabled and ideologically motivated enemies. When these forces collided under the guise of militant nationalism in 1914, the most advanced nations found new ways to spy on each other. Three new capabilities would arise in the major states: sustained and dedicated technological collection and analysis for commanders and decision makers; interactions of analytical products and operations 40 chapter 2 specifically intended to create more intelligence; and the consciousness, among leaders, of the national significance of the secret arts. States that could not follow the leaders in this new field fell too far behind to catch up. Into the Maelstrom On June 28, 1914, a young radical in Sarajevo finally succeeded where the anarchists and socialists had failed in their efforts to rock Western civilization . Ironically it was a Serb, Gavrilo Princip, striking a blow for Slavic nationalism rather than world revolution, who assassinated the heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. When war came a month later, the world’s most advanced nations opened their astonishing arsenals to equip armies of conscripts who could be mobilized in days. In keeping with the war’s ironic and unexpected origin, no one knew quite how the conflict would unfold. For a few weeks it resembled what people remembered of the Franco-Prussian War. Indeed, the war’s initial campaigns were fastpaced affairs, with colorful uniforms and massed cavalry formations. At sea, German cruisers added another touch from the nineteenth century, preying on allied shipping for a few months before the Royal Navy hunted them down. Commanders in those early battles, however, had tools undreamt of by Napoleon: radios and aircraft. The massive armies of 1914 were deployed according to precise railroad timetables and carried wireless transmitters to help their senior officers monitor and control formations in the field. The Germans marched first and fastest, crashing through neutral Belgium in a calculated gamble that they could fall on the flanks of the French army before Russia could bring its strength to bear on the Eastern Front. Everything depended on speed and firepower and timing. If there was too much delay in beating the French, the Russians would invade Germany itself. It almost worked, but from the beginning things started to go wrong. The Belgians fought hard, and their fortresses had to be flattened with Krupp’s huge guns, giving the French precious days to prepare for the German tide. Worse yet, the British set aside their neutrality when Germany invaded Belgium, and sent their own contemptible little army (in Kaiser Wilhelm’s unfortunate phrase) to France’s aid. Worst of all, the Russians moved faster than anyone had thought possible, pushing into Prussia with two armies, and threatening to crush the smaller German force left to guard the frontier. a revolutionary age 41 The Russian commanders coordinated their advance by radio, which everyone, by 1914, knew was being intercepted by the enemy. It was for that very reason that every modern army was already encoding tactical radio...