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159 Chapter 7 Last Resort Now war broke out in heaven. Revelation 12:7 The last resort condition appears to have an intuitively obvious meaning: it would be wrong for a state to go to war until all other options have been tried and failed. Thus, any rapid move to war would appear suspect, as probably violating that condition. Yet appearances can be deceptive. It is possible that the moment of last resort, when war ought to be chosen, might arrive earlier than desired or expected. It is also possible that its arrival might not be recognized by the relevant government. Britain and France had good reason to think the moment of last resort when war had to be declared had arrived in September 1939 when Germany attacked Poland. But if they were correct to think so, it is hard to see why they should not have judged that it had arrived in 1938 when Hitler threatened war against Czechoslovakia, or that it had arrived in early 1939 when he tore up the Munich agreement and invaded the remnant of Czechoslovakia. There is much to be said for the claim that Britain and France should have gone to war with Germany over Czechoslovakia, thereby implying that the last resort had arrived in 1938. Natural reluctance to resort to war may hinder democratic states from accepting that the last resort has arrived, much less that it might arrive quickly. The only clear exception governments make to that general attitude is when their own country is being invaded, when one can no longer deny that the last resort has come. But apart from that, there seems to be a common notion that a government can never really be certain that the last resort has arrived since the moral horror of war is surely such that there is always some other option that could be tried instead. There may be options that have not yet been tried, 160 CHAPTER 7 or options already tried that could be tried again: to hold that nothing but war will serve is sometimes viewed as a counsel of despair. It seems, then, that of all the jus ad bellum conditions, the last resort condition is that which we are most likely to see as impossible of fulfillment in practice. It is part of the purpose of this chapter to argue that clarification of the last resort condition shows that this is not so. As a tradition in practical morality, the just war tradition’s criteria are capable of fulfillment even though certainty on the matter is usually hard to come by. But it cannot really be questioned that the last resort is sometimes reached if only because a government resisting an invasion can be in no doubt that the last resort has come. Success and the Last Resort Throughout this book I have argued that there is a logical ordering of the jus ad bellum criteria. Thus, without having a just cause in war, a government cannot have a right intention; without a right intention, having a reasonable prospect of success becomes irrelevant. In this chapter the relevant logical link is the relationship between the probability of success criterion and the last resort criterion. Without an adequate probability of success, going to war would be irrational ; hence, it could not be a practical option for rational choice. If in a given instance there is no reasonable hope of success, it cannot be rational to go to war. If it is irrational to go to war, war is simply not available as an option , even as a final option or last resort. Thus, failure to meet the probability of success condition means that the last resort condition cannot be met, and consideration of it becomes irrelevant. As a corollary of that claim, the reasonable probability of success condition must also play a key role in identifying the period of time within which going to war would qualify as a practically possible option. If after a certain point in time a previously high probability of success dwindles sharply so that success is now unlikely, the moment of last resort must come—if it comes at all—prior to that point. Consider the following question: Assuming that competent authority, just cause, and right intention are present, when may a state go to war? It is commonly thought that the correct answer is when the moment of last resort has arrived. It is assumed that the last resort condition has a...

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