Sharing the Common Pool: Water Rights in the Everyday Lives of Texans

6. Supply and Demand, Today and Tomorrow

Part Three HOW IS WATER USED AND REGULATED? [ 53 Why is an understanding of water rights in Texas more important today than ever before in our history? Because Texas currently has a strong economy, and experts project Texas will experience long-term growth. GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND WATER SUPPLY Most experts expect the population of Texas to almost double by 2060. That growth would put tremendous pressure on our water resources, and predictions show a trend downward in the supply of water versus demand over the same time period, even without the recurring droughts. But in drought times, sure to revisit regularly, the predictions are dire indeed. In the state water plan for 2012, water development board chair Edward G.Vaughan wrote in his cover letter this significant statement: “The primary message of the 2012 State Water Plan is a simple one: In serious drought conditions, Texas does not and will not have enough water to meet the needs of its people, its businesses, and its agricultural enterprises. . . . This plan also presents the sobering news of the economic losses likely to occur if these water supply needs cannot be met.”1 6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND, TODAY AND TOMORROW How Is Water Used? 54 ] Projections indicate that irrigation will hold steady as a major user of water resources over the next 50 years along with a corresponding large growth in municipal use. These statistics clearly demonstrate why water resources in Texas are under pressure now and will be in the future and why water must be protected, enhanced, and conserved. WATER PLANNING EFFORTS In June 1997, Governor George W. Bush signed into law Senate Bill 1 (SB 1), comprehensive water legislation enacted by the 75th Texas Legislature. This legislation was an outgrowth of increased awareness of the vulnerability of Texas to drought and to the limits of existing water supplies to meet increasing demands as population grows. Regional Water Planning Groups With passage of SB 1, the legislature put in place a “bottom-up” water planning process designed to help ensure that the water needs of all Texans were met as Texas entered the twenty-first century. Governor Bush set up planning groups to work on long-term water strategies for surface water and groundwater. The legislature followed up by creating specific groundwater management areas and regional water planning groups to plan for the long-term future of water in Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) divided the state into 16 regional water planning groups (RWPGs). Senate Bill 1 mandated that individuals representing 11 interest groups serve as members of the Projected population growth in Texas, 2010–2060. Courtesy Texas Water Development Board. [ 55 Supply and Demand RWPGs, which would be responsible for deciding how future water needs in their respective regions may be met and would prepare regional water plans for their respective areas. The plans they developed would map out how to conserve water supplies, meet future water supply needs, and respond to future droughts in the planning areas. The planning process begins with the collection and analysis of various kinds of information related to water demands and supplies. Two basic types of information are needed to determine surface water supplies for regional water planning. First, the total available supply within the region, which comprises the firm yield of individual reservoirs (the maximum water volume a reservoir can provide each year under a reRegional water planning groups. Courtesy Texas Water Development Board. How Is Water Used? 56 ] peat of the drought of record), the increased yield due to current system operations, and the “run-of-the-river” supplies (the changing, dynamic surface flow), must be determined. Second, the supply of water currently available to water-user groups as identified by user source and limited by permits, contracts, availability, and infrastructure must be determined. Each regional water plan includes information about water supplies and demand, water quality problems affecting water supply, and social and economic characteristics of the region. The plan also identifies water supply threats to agriculture and other natural resources. Information concerning current preparations for drought and the status of other water plans in the region are also reviewed. The following tasks are common to each regional water plan: • determine water demands; • determine water supplies available for use during drought of record; • determine where and when there is a surplus of supply or a...