Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge

Chapter 2: Recent and Projected Population Change in Texas

CHAPTER 2 Recent and Projected Population Change in Texas HISTORIC PATTERNS OF POPULATION CHANGE Texas has experienced rapid, continuous, and substantial population growth since 1850, the first time in which it was included as a state in the decennial census. It had only 212,592 people (Table 2.1). In fact, in every decade since becoming part of the United States, Texas has shown a higher rate of population growth than the nation as a whole. It became the second largest state (behind California) by 1994. Recent population growth has been particularly extensive. Texas’ population increased from 16,986,510 in 1990, to 20,851,820 in 2000, to 25,145,561 in 2010 (Table 2.1), and it was estimated to be 26,059,203 as of July 1, 2012 (the most recent date for which estimates are available at the time of this publication). Texas was the fastest growing state in numerical terms both from 2000 to 2010 with an increase of 4,293,741 and from 2010 to 2012 with an increase of 913,642, the fifth fastest growing in percentage terms from 2000 to 2010 with an increase of 20.6 percent, and the second fastest growing in percentage terms from 2010 to 2012 with an increase of 3.6 percent. Growth has not been uniformly distributed across the state, however. The state had three of the ten largest cities in the nation in 2010 with Houston being the fourth largest, San Antonio the seventh largest, and Dallas the ninth largest. Texas also had the county with the smallest population in the United States (Loving, with 82 people in 2010). Seventy-nine of its 254 counties showed population declines from 2000 to 2010 and 96 from 2010 to 2012. Texas remains a state of diversity in population growth rates as in other characteristics. The population of Texas has also become increasingly racially and ethnically diverse. In 1990, the state’s population was 60.6 percent nonHispanic 18 Chapter 2 White, 11.6 percent nonHispanic Black, 25.6 percent Hispanic, and 2.2 percent nonHispanic Asian and Other. By 2010, Texas population was 45.3 percent nonHispanic White (decreasing from 52.4 percent nonHispanic White in 2000 and is estimated to have become less than 50 percent nonHispanic White sometime between 2003 and 2004), 11.5 percent nonHispanic Black, 37.6 percent Hispanic (including Hispanics of all races), and 5.6 percent nonHispanic Asian and Other (Table 2.2). By 2010, Texas was only one of four states (with Hawaii, California, and New Mexico) in which less than 50 percent of the population was nonHispanic White. Texas is a majority minority state. Because minority populations tend to have younger age structures and Texas has a large minority population, the state has a younger age structure Table 2.1 Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850–2010 Total Population Percent Change from Previous Time Period Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S. 1850 212,592 23,191,876 — — 1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6 1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6 1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0 1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5 1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7 1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0 1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9 1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1 1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2 1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5 1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0 1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4 1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4 1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8 2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2 2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7 Source: Carter et al. 2006; and U.S. Census Bureau 2011b. Note: April 1 of reported year. Population Change 19 than the nation as a whole. Texas has consistently shown a median age of 2 to 4 years less than that of the nation with a median age of 33.6 years compared to 37.2 years for...