Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge

Chapter 7: Health, Human, and Correctional Services in Texas

CHAPTER 7 Health, Human, and Correctional Services in Texas Critical to the creation of a productive population and workforce necessary to forge a prosperous future are a variety of health and human services and the rehabilitation of Texans who become incarcerated. In this chapter, we examine health services provided largely by the private sector, publicly provided human services that address needs for basic income, health care, and other assistance, and the size and costs of future correctional programs in Texas. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE IN TEXAS Health Related Incidences and Disabling Conditions Health care facility and personnel requirements in Texas will grow substantially in the future as a result of the increase in the state’s population. However , because of the aging of the population, the population needing health services will increase faster than the total population. Texas’ population is projected to increase by more than 30.1 million people from 2010 to 2050, an increase of 119.5 percent to a total population of 55.2 million people. As the data in Table 7.1 indicate, the number of incidences of disease and disorders in Texas will increase even more rapidly, with the number of incidences increasing by 84.3 million incidences, or by 136.8 percent, from 2010 to 2050. As with other factors tied to population change, the most rapid growth in health incidences will occur among the Hispanic, nonHispanic Asian and Other, and nonHispanic Black populations. Whereas the number of incidences involving nonHispanic White population members will increase by 18.3 percent from 2010 to 2050, the number of incidences involving nonHispanic Black population members will increase by 123.9 percent, 134 Chapter 7 those involving Hispanics will increase by 317.5 percent, and those involving nonHispanic Asian and Other persons will increase by 556.1 percent. By 2050, 28.1 percent of all incidences will involve nonHispanic White, 12.0 percent nonHispanic Black, 47.9 percent Hispanic, and 12.0 percent nonHispanic Asian and Other, compared to 55.5 percent, 12.8 percent , 27.3 percent, and 4.4 percent in these groups, respectively, in 2010 (Table 7.2). As might be expected, the overall age differentials between racial/ethnic groups are reflected in the percentages of those having incidences of different types of diseases and disorders. Those incidences of diseases disproportionately impacting older persons show higher prevalence among nonHispanic Whites and lower prevalence among persons from all other racial and ethnic groups. Table 7.1 Projections of Incidences of Diseases/Disorders and Percent Change in Incidences of Diseases/Disorders in Texas by Race/ Ethnicity from 2010 to 2050 Using the Population Projection That Assumes 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration, 2010–2050 Year NH* White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other Total Number of Incidences 2010 34,400,777 7,595,342 17,072,316 2,592,134 61,660,569 2020 37,891,233 9,970,823 25,851,970 4,393,091 78,107,117 2030 40,207,165 12,437,276 37,560,027 7,255,396 97,459,864 2040 41,072,929 14,796,133 52,332,506 11,200,174 119,401,742 2050 40,713,269 17,009,228 71,280,514 17,007,539 146,010,550 Percent Change in Incidences 2010–2020 10.1 31.3 51.4 69.5 26.7 2020–2030 6.1 24.7 45.3 65.2 24.8 2030–2040 2.2 19.0 39.3 54.4 22.5 2040–2050 –0.9 15.0 36.2 51.9 22.3 2010–2050 18.3 123.9 317.5 556.1 136.8 Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from National Center for Health Statistics 2012c. *NH refers to nonHispanic; values shown are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. Health, Human, and Correctional Services 135 For example, whereas nonHispanic Whites will account for 28.1 percent of all incidences, they will account for 35.1 percent of most coronary incidences, 43.4 percent of emphysema cases, 47.9 percent of cancer incidences , and 49.9 percent of all incidences involving hearing difficulties by 2050. NonHispanic Black residents will account for 12 percent of all Table 7.2 Projected Percent of the Prevalence of Selected Diseases/Disorders in Texas by Race/Ethnicity and Type of Diseases/Disorders for Adults (18 Years of...