The Ice Chronicles: The Quest to Understand Global Climate Change

Contents

Contents List of Illustrations xi Foreword by Lynn Margulis xv Preface xix Acknowledgments xxiii Introduction 1 Breakthrough / 1 Climate Change and Social Change / 4 The Ice Chronicles / 9 Technical Feature: How Glaciers Record Climate / 12 Implications / 14 1. Setting the Stage for our Modern Understanding 19 of Climate Change Adventure Feature:The Wright Stuff / 21 The Ice Core Connection / 24 Initiation / 27 Adventure Feature: Polar Reflections / 29 Unfinished Business / 32 A Heated Discussion / 35 Technical Feature: Global Warming, Global Warning / 37 2. The Making of an Ice Core “Time Machine” 38 Sleepless in Seattle / 41 Debating in Durham / 42 Waiting for Washington / 43 Detour to Antarctica / 44 Getting Ready for Greenland / 49 Adventure Feature: Lost! / 50 Technical Feature: Drill Site Selection / 57 Bringing Back the Ice Chronicles / 62 Adventure Feature: Camping Out / 64 Life on the Ice / 66 Technical Feature: Drilling Details / 66 Technical Feature:The Core Processing Line (CPL) / 71 Core Issues / 73 Hitting Rock Bottom / 78 3. The Discovery of Rapid Climate Change Events (RCCEs) 80 and the Realization that Climate Has Multiple Controls Technical Feature: End-to-End Science / 82 The Role of RCCEs / 84 Technical Feature: Stable Isotope Measurements of Water in Ice Cores / 87 Technical Feature: Chemical Measurements in Ice Cores / 88 The Younger Dryas as a Classic Example of a RCCE / 91 Multiple Controls on Climate / 95 Technical Feature:The AstronomicalTheory of Climate Change / 99 Technical Feature:The Ocean’s Conveyor Belt / 104 Moving Toward a More Complete Understanding of Climate Change / 108 4. Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations 111 Adventure Feature: Climbing Glaciers Barefoot (with a Beagle) / 111 Rapid Climate Change Events (RCCEs) during the Holocene / 113 The Complexity of the Holocene Climate / 116 Climate and the Development of Human Civilization / 118 The Collapse of Civilization in Western Asia around 2200 b.c. / 120 Disappearance of the Norse Colonies in Greenland around a.d. 1400 / 122 Disappearance of the Maya Civilization a.d. 750 to 900 / 123 Lessons Learned from Past Civilizations / 124 viii Contents ç 5. The Last Thousand Years of Climate Change 126 Adventure Feature: Peak Experiences / 126 Technical Feature: How Could the Atmosphere Cool if Greenhouse Gases Are on the Rise? / 133 Technical Feature: Stormy Weather:The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age / 136 Technical Feature: Politics, History, and Climate Change / 142 Multiple Forcing Factors Revisited / 145 Technical Feature: Record Performances / 148 Technical Feature: How Did Our Understanding of the Ozone Hole Evolve? / 153 Summary / 160 6. Climate Change: The Real Impact 161 Adventure Feature:The Danger of Dancing Snow / 162 Technical Feature: Ice Storms and Hurricanes: Dramatic Damage at Local to Regional Scales / 164 Technical Feature: From Urban Heat Islands to Nuclear Winter / 168 An Example of a Global View of Climate Variability / 170 Land Use and Climate Change / 172 An Example of a Regional Scale Prediction for the United States / 172 Technical Feature: From Greenhouse Gas Warming to Cooling in the North Atlantic: Surprises in the Climate System / 174 Technical Feature: The Impact of Instability in the Atmosphere and Ocean: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) / 175 Summary / 177 7. Confronting the Choices: Scientists, Politicians, and 179 Public Policy Technical Feature: Seeing Clearly / 179 A Closer Look at the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / 183 Confronting the Choices / 191 Adventure Feature:The Function of Fear / 197 Summary / 199 Contents ix ç 8. Learning to Live in a Changing World 201 Adventure Feature:The Endurance of Sir Ernest Shackleton / 203 Immediate versus Long-term Effects / 205 Technical Feature:Twenty-first Century Science / 208 Principles for a Positive Future / 210 Summary / 213 Chapter References 215 Bibliography 223 Index 225 x Contents ç ...