Second Verse, Same as the First: The 2012 Presidential Election in the South

9: Florida

143 9 Florida Sí, Se Puede! Jonathan Knuckey Tyler Branz Florida was at the forefront of the battle for the White House in 2012. It was the South’s premier battleground state, which accounted for more spent on television advertising than in any other state in the nation, and it trailed only Ohio in terms of campaign appearances by both party’s presi­ den­ tial and vice presi­ den­ tial nominees. The status of Florida as a political bellwether state was further affirmed as for the fifteenth time in the post–World War II period it cast its Electoral College votes for the national winner. The Sunshine State was also prominent in 2012 for reasons other than the attention devoted to it in the general election campaign: an early Republican primary election, speculation about one of its U.S. senators being selected as the GOP’s vice presi­ den­ tial candidate , and its hosting of one of the national party conventions, as well as the third and final presi­ den­ tial debate. The closing weeks of the general election also saw Florida in the news, for the wrong reasons, as the process and mechanics of voting in the state came under intense scrutiny, with many voters standing in line for several hours to cast a vote during the early voting period or on Election Day. This chapter places the 2012 election in Florida in the context of 144 H Jonathan Knuckey and Tyler Branz recent party development in the state.1 While Barack Obama scored a narrow victory over Mitt Romney—­ only the disputed 2000 election resulted in a closer percentage-­ point difference between the two parties—­ it will be argued that Florida is emerging as a state that now leans Democratic in presi­ den­ tial elections and that this is a result of the profound demographic changes that are evident in the state—­ most consequentially, the growth of the Latino vote.2 This is not to say a Republican cannot win Florida in the future. After all, following the 2012 election the GOP still held a majority of U.S. House seats and dominated both chambers of the state legislature. Moreover, as the 2010 midterm elections in Florida demonstrated, Republicans can win statewide if the Democrats fail to mobilize their electoral coalition. Both demographic change and generational replacement of the electorate suggest , however, that it will be the Democrats who are better positioned to forge a majority coalition in the Sunshine State. This has profound consequences for future presi­ den­ tial elections and the battle to win the White House. While Florida’s Electoral College votes will be a luxury for the Democrats—­ Obama would have won the presidency in both 2008 and 2012 without Florida—­ realistically, they will be a necessity for the Republicans. The 2010 Midterm Elections in Florida: Tea Party Defeats the Establishment The 2010 midterm election was an electoral earthquake for Florida. There was, on the one hand, little surprise that in a pro-­ Republican year the party won both of the major statewide offices being contested, further consolidated its grip in both chambers of the state legislature, and added to its U.S. House delegation. The identities of the victorious GOP candidates for both governor and the U.S. Senate, on the other hand, not only reflected a midterm backlash against Presi­ dent Obama but also sharply rebuked the GOP establishment. Moreover, the elections of Rick Scott as governor and Marco Rubio to the U.S. Senate would see both playing roles—­ albeit for different reasons—­ in the presi­ den­ tial election two years later. When one-­ term U.S. senator Mel Martinez decided to resign in August 2009, he set in motion a chain of political events that few observers of Florida politics could have predicted. Martinez had already announced in early December 2008 that he would not seek another term, in part because of a perception of vulnerability in 2010 caused Florida H 145 by his association with former presi­ dent George W. Bush and his specific support of immigration reform that would have created a path to legalized citizenship for undocumented workers.3 The initial speculation was that former governor Jeb Bush would be a strong favorite to hold the seat for the GOP, but Bush quickly announced the following month that he was not running. This cleared the way for Governor Charlie Crist to announce in May 2009...