Second Verse, Same as the First: The 2012 Presidential Election in the South

5: Louisiana

69 5 Louisiana For Republicans and Obama, Second Verse, Same as the First Robert E. Hogan Joshua D. Hostetter One of the most interesting aspects of the 2012 presi­ den­ tial election in Louisiana is its close resemblance to the election four years earlier. In an election marked by relatively high turnout, the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, won the state with 57.78 percent of the vote, compared with Presi­ dent Obama’s 40.58 percent. The two-­ party vote margin favoring the Republican nominee in 2012 (17.5 percent) was only slightly lower than John McCain’s margin in 2008 (18.9 percent). Even the primary election among the Republican contenders resembled the contest four years earlier. The eventual Republican nominee lost to a favorite of the state’s Christian conservatives. Thus, the 2012 presi­ den­ tial election in Louisiana was mostly a replay of the 2008 elections. While Louisiana may once have been a southern bellwether of national voting trends in presi­ den­ tial politics, the state is now a reliable Republican stronghold.1 Brief History Similar to other southern states, early signs of Louisiana’s shift from one-­ party politics began in the 1950s and 1960s as voters began supporting 70 H Robert E. Hogan and Joshua D. Hostetter Republican presi­ den­ tial candidates. Voters in 1956 helped reelect Presi­ dent Eisenhower and in 1964 backed Republican nominee Sen. Barry Goldwater. Even though less than 3 percent of Louisiana voters were registered Republicans in 1972, they strongly supported Nixon for reelection .2 In that same year, Louisiana elected its first Republican to Congress since Reconstruction, David Treen. Seven years later, Treen went on to become the state’s first Republican governor since Re­ construction. Despite these early successes, the rise of Republicans was slower and more erratic in Louisiana than in other southern states.3 While Republican presi­ den­ tial candidates did well (Reagan won handily in 1980 and 1984), Republican registration did not reach double digits until the mid-­ 1980s. In the meantime, Democrats continued to dominate most statewide and state legislative offices. By the 1990s the state experienced sustained growth in Republican adherents and greater competition for congressional seats. Republican Mike Foster was elected governor in 1995 and then reelected four years later. During this period Republicans began contesting more statewide constitutional offices, and for the first time a majority of congressional seats went to the GOP. Of course, such changes in party offices did not occur for all offices in the state. While Republicans won many state legislative races, even by the mid-­ 1990s they still held less than a quarter of the seats. During the 1990s Louisiana voters helped elect Democrat Bill Clinton both in 1992 and again in 1996. By the end of the 1990s, the political environment of the state was best characterized as competitive, as both parties had the potential to win statewide office. In the first statewide elections of the new century, Democrat Kathleen Blanco defeated Bobby Jindal in the race for governor, and Democrats continued to hold nearly two-­ thirds of the seats in the legislature. The electoral fortunes of Democrats began to shift in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, however. With her public support weakened, Governor Blanco decided late in the 2007 election cycle not to seek reelection , and prominent Democrats such as former U.S. senator John Breaux passed on the opportunity to run. These decisions paved the way for an easy victory for Republican Bobby Jindal, who faced a field of lesser-­ known Democrats. Following his election and then reelection in 2011, the state witnessed rapid gains in Republican officeholders. A wave of party defections by statewide and legislative officials coupled with efforts by the GOP to ramp up their representation in state government resulted in a major shift in party control. Following the 2011 elec- Louisiana H 71 tions, all seven statewide constitutional officers, along with a majority of members in both legislative chambers, were Republican. Only one U.S. House seat remained in Democratic hands (Rep. Cedric Richmond), and Sen. Mary Landrieu stood as the sole Democrat elected from a statewide constituency. From one perspective the ascendency of the Republican Party over the past decade appears rapid. While some have attributed these changes to the population displacements following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, several long-­ term changes have been at play for some time. For example, the continued alignment of voters’ ideological...