The Great Recession

Chapter 8. The Great Recession’s Influence on Fertility,Marriage, Divorce, and Cohabitation

220 Chapter 8 The Great Recession’s Influence on Fertility, Marriage, Divorce, and Cohabitation S. Philip Morgan, Erin Cumberworth, and Christopher Wimer T he experience of the Great Recession is not confined to the spheres of jobs, earnings, and wealth. Amid the turmoil and economic upheaval in the wider economy, individuals and families go about their lives, planning marriages, suffering through breakups and divorces, planning families, and sorting out their living arrangements . The recession could conceivably have major effects on all of these family processes. Weddings and babies, after all, can be expensive endeavors . At the same time, partnering can create economies of scale that make meeting daily expenses easier. Financial strains can lead to strained relationships. And hardships can also bring families together. Stated differently , people not only “feel” the recession in their families, they also respond to it, not only as individuals but as members of families. Studies of how recent recessions impact the family are rare (for an exception, see Moen 1979); more research is available on the Great Depression (for example , Elder 1974). In this chapter, we examine the recession’s effects on fertility and fam- Fertility, Marriage, Divorce, and Cohabitation    221 ily planning use; unions—marriage, divorce, cohabitation; and living arrangements of those not in unions. Is the recession altering the fabric of the American family? Or are families functioning pretty much as usual? Did the Great Recession have disproportionate impacts on identifiable population subgroups? Bringing together data from the National Vital Statistics System and the Current Population Survey, this chapter attempts to examine such questions. Though questions of establishing causal processes generally remain outside the scope of this chapter, we provide a wide range of evidence as to how American families are changing in the face of one of the biggest economic calamities since the Great Depression. Fertility Fertility rates in the United States have varied dramatically over the past century, plummeting during the Great Depression, skyrocketing during the post–World War II baby boom, declining again in the baby bust of the 1970s. The total fertility rate (TFR), the most commonly used fertility measure, is defined as the number of births a woman would have if she experienced over her lifetime the age-specific rates of a given period. The major changes in the TFR occurred during periods of massive social transformation, such as the Great Depression in the 1920s and 1930s and the postwar baby boom and bust of the 1950s and 1960s. Since then, the United States has experienced an extended period of striking stability, with Americans averaging close to two children per woman. For several decades prior to the Great Recession the U.S. TFR hovered around 2.1, or near the “replacement rate”—the level necessary for replenishing the population (net any immigration and the effects of existing age structure ). But even small changes in the TFR translate to large and substantial changes in the absolute number of children born each year—more than 4 million babies were born each year in the period from 2000 to 2008, so even a modest decline (say, 5 percent) means several hundred thousand fewer births (200,000). Moreover, the relative stability of the TFR in recent decades masks other important changes such as a dramatic increase in nonmarital fertility and a two-decade-long increase in ages of a woman’s first birth. The Great Recession could impact these aspects of fertility as well as the overall rates and absolute numbers. So how might the experience of the 2008-to-2009 Great Recession affect fertility? Over three decades ago, the demographers William P. Butz and Michael P. Ward (1979) argued that a “counter-cycle” fertility response was emerging. Specifically, because more women were in the workforce they might use periods of unemployment and weak employer demands as an opportune time to have children. In other words, the opportunity costs of children would be less during economic downturns. 222    The Great Recession Further, with greater gender equality child care provided by the un- or underemployed spouse (mother or father) would lower the primary cost of childbearing in terms of lost wages and income. No doubt such calculations influence some women and couples, but past evidence from the United States and other developed countries suggests that the dominant effects of economic downturns reduce fertility (Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philpov 2010). Why? Making the decision of when to have a child is one of...