The American Campaign, Second Edition: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote

Figures

Figures 1.1. The Minimal EVects Theory of Political Campaigns, 11 1.2. The Mean Absolute Error of Trial-Heat “Forecasts” at Seven Points in the Campaign, 1948–2004, 17 1.3. Trial-Heat Poll Support in Early September for the Incumbent Party’s Presidential Candidate and the Incumbent Party’s Two-Party Presidential Vote, 1948–2004, 18 2.1. The Theory of the Predictable Campaign, 28 2.2. The Development of the Typical Campaign, 47 5.1. Presidential Approval in July and the Incumbent’s Two-Party Presidential Vote, 1948–2004, 111 6.1. The Election-Year Economy and the Incumbent Party’s Two-Party Presidential Vote, 1948–2004, 131 6.2. A Model of Voters’ Politicized Impressions of National Economic Conditions, 135 6.3. The Third-Year Economy and the In-Party Candidate’s Early September Trial-Heat Poll Standing, 1948–2004, 138 ...