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★ Chapter 7 The Normal Course of the Campaign THE CIRCUMSTANCES UNDER which presidential campaigns take place systematically aVect how they develop and how they aVect the November vote. Both presidential incumbency and the election-year economy establish important parts of the context for campaigns. Although these pre-campaign conditions are diVerent in each election year, with incumbents running in some elections and not in others and with the economy booming in some years and faltering in others, they shape the course that campaigns take in ways that can be largely anticipated before campaigns begin. In addition to incumbency and the economy, there is another factor that structures the campaign’s eVects on the vote: the fierce competition of presidential campaigns. Like the economy and incumbency, the intense competition of presidential campaigns makes campaign eVects predictable. Because of the intense competition and the two-party system, campaigns usually narrow the lead of the frontrunning candidate. The normal course of the presidential campaign is for the race to tighten up by election day. The Basis of Political Competition Once the general election campaign begins in earnest, several aspects of competition whittle away at the frontrunner’s lead and boosts support for the opponent . First, often unlike circumstances prior to the campaign, once the campaign begins, the candidates are on a fairly even playing field. Both receive a great deal of attention from the press and the public, have well-established campaign organizations behind them, and have top-rate professional advisors. Moreover, the campaigns for both candidates are run at such a high level of in- tensity, interest, and commitment, that any disparity that might exist is proportionately a small diVerence. The competitiveness of presidential campaigns also provides a party with the opportunity to reinvigorate its partisans and bring back into the fold those who might have been disappointed with their party’s nominee. While party nominations are sometimes decided with little contest, many are hotly contested , and some nomination battles leave deep internal party animosities. As the nomination hopefuls campaign for delegates, partisans take sides within the party. Since there can be only one nominee, when nominations are contested , there will be unsuccessful candidates with disappointed supporters. Some may be so deeply disappointed that they may consider not voting or may even flirt with voting for the other party’s candidate. Simply the passage of time would heal some internal party wounds, but competition between the parties in the general election campaign also provides candidates with an opportunity to solidify their partisan bases. Increasing party solidarity is the primary function of the first major events of the campaign, the party conventions. Through speeches, party platforms, and the selection of a vice presidential candidate, partisans are rallied to the candidate’s side. Most speeches from the faction of the party winning the nomination are conciliatory in tone and stress the common values within the party and diVerences with the opposition.The rhetorical histories of both parties’national conventions are marked by rousing and reunifying speeches from party leaders.1 Party platforms, often faulted for being general and full of platitudes, are precisely so because they are intended to smooth over any party divisions.2 Perhaps the most important part of a modern convention, particularly one nominating a non-incumbent, is the selection of the vice presidential candidate . Most presidential nominees are known to the public before the conventions and have been figured into vote decisions, but this is not the case for many vice presidential nominees. While the first rule in the selection of a running mate is to do no harm to the ticket, the vice presidential selection often helps to unify and energize the party faithful. By balancing the ticket, ideologically as well as regionally, a presidential candidate can make a meaningful overture to those who had supported other candidates for the nomination. Building party unity was clearly an element in Kennedy’s selection of Johnson in 1960, Reagan’s selection of Bush in 1980, Dukakis’s selection of Bentsen in 1988, and Dole’s selection of Kemp in 1996.3 Like other convention decisions, the selection of the vice presidential candidate generally has a clear goal: to get the party’s general election campaign oV to a good start by presenting a united front.4 From the conventions to election day, the campaign reminds Democrats why they are Democrats and Republicans why they are Republicans. Partisan144 • the american campaign [18.191.228.88] Project MUSE (2024-04-23 14:05...

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