Provisional Pulpit: Modern Presidential Leadership of Public Opinion

Appendix B: Case Study Selection and Archival Data Collection Methods

Appendix B Case Study Selection and Archival Data Collection Methods In this appendix I outline the process of selecting and constructing case studies (including advantages and disadvantages) and describes the document search procedure at the presidential archives. Case Studies as Political Analysis A comprehensive search of presidential archives is an informative way to analyze presidential history. As noted in chapter , it is difficult, but not impossible, to treat archival data analysis of this sort in a truly systematic manner. In that sense, as is the situation with most works based on case studies, scholars are unable to definitively prove their assertions. However, given the range of cases and the interpretation of theories of behavior and leadership, it can be claimed with some certainty that the assertions here are plausibly correct. Ultimately, though, I attempted to be careful when discussing casual connections and in proposing absolute conclusions. In this section, I explore the advantages and disadvantages of addressing theoretical questions with archival material so I can be clear about the contributions and limitations of the analysis. In addition, I discuss the case selection method. A case study is defined as “an intensive study of a single unit (a relatively bounded phenomenon) where the scholar’s aim is to elucidate features of a larger class of phenomena.” Therefore, the case studies employed in this book are fixed in time to a particular moment (typically a month or shorter) in which to analyze presidential behavior and public reaction. This limit provides a sufficient amount of time to understand the event and reaction to it in varying political situations. My goal in using these case studies is to illuminate and explain with greater depth the aggregate empirical findings from the statistical models presented. 228 : APPENDIX B In this way I attempt to avoid problems of ambiguity in case study research , about which Gerring notes, “Writers should be clear about which propositions are intended to describe the unit under study and which are intended to apply to a broader set of units.” The primary evidence used in the case studies are documents collected from presidential archives (more on this below) containing information on public opinion or public opinion polling. Polling data or polling memoranda presented in this project conform to a basic standard or qualification that I applied when selecting a valid document. Heith, in her comprehensive study of the polling memoranda sent by and to White House staffers during the Nixon administration through Bush administrations, defines the material she selected as including formal and informal memoranda, handwritten notes, pollster reports, and other various written documents. The documents selected for this book generally conformed to these criteria. The document search included poll and focus group results from a variety of sources, including memoranda detailing the utilization of public opinion in any form and handwritten notes documenting the flow of material to and from individuals in the White House. Reliance on historical data for purposes of testing theories has several advantages and disadvantages. One major advantage of presidential archival research is that empirical investigation can be conducted inside the “black box” of presidential policy making. Further, as Page notes, untangling the connection between policy and opinion may be best conducted by just such a method since it provides a relatively clear and valid explanation of the players’ thoughts and arguments. Others have successfully employed these techniques to mid-twentieth-century presidents. Armed with the fertile information from the actual time of decision making, researchers can find out what the president and his staff knew and when they knew it. We can therefore identify important timing sequences to investigate how public opinion had an effect on decision making, a key consideration for testing the hypotheses and getting a fresh look at the theoretical quandary of connecting policy and opinion. A prominent disadvantage in using archival research is the problem of possible selection bias. For all presidential administrations, many small but significant events, such as personal thoughts or phone calls, were not recorded. Important and relevant documents could have been lost or discarded either by the principal author or by staffers when sorting materials. Some of the materials uniquely relevant to an analysis of Case Study Selection and Archival Data Collection : 229 presidential involvement with public opinion is also not yet open to the public. This might be especially true for the Bush White House since many of the materials have not yet been opened by...