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1 Global Energy Shifts in World Historical Perspective
- Temple University Press
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1 Global Energy Shifts in World Historical Perspective I n the latter part of the nineteenth century, the citizens of Great Britain faced what seemed to be a bleak energy future. Commentators argued that the country’s most important energy resource—coal—was destined to run out within a generation or so. At the same time, they argued that there was no viable alternative to coal. Two primary solutions to Britain’s perceived energy crunch were therefore offered: Military strategists were urged to undertake expeditions to seize control of coal reserves in foreign lands, and companies were urged to drive their workers harder to increase domestic production of the resource. But these efforts were met with resistance from other colonial powers and from unions inside Britain. Meanwhile, cities across the nation grew increasingly choked with the sulfurous pollution flowing out of factories, railroads, and homes.1 Accounts at the time argued that Britain was destined to lose its global preeminence as its coal reserves disappeared and as social and environmental problems originating from the industry tore at the fabric of British society. In the eyes of many commentators, the resource that had once fueled the rise of the nation’s fortunes had begun to contribute to the weakening of the British Empire. Shifting forward in time, intriguing parallels between the “coal panics” that swept through Britain in the latter part of the nineteenth century and the “oil panics” that grip the world today are clear. The world’s oil infrastructure is threatened by insurgencies in many countries, and there are widespread fears that reserves of oil will be unable to meet world demand within a decade or so. At the same time, many analysts claim that there are few viable alternatives to oil. Likewise, the recommendations that flow from this view rather eerily echo those proposed in the nineteenth century. Governments across the world are again being urged to seize military or commercial control over key oil reserves, and local officials in many countries are being urged to remove constraints on domestic oil extraction to maximize production.2 But resistance to these efforts is even fiercer today than it was in the nineteenth century. Oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, 2 Chapter One and Venezuela are protecting their independence from external pressure. Meanwhile, social chaos is engulfing countries like Iraq, Nigeria, and Russia and undermining their ability to provide oil to the wider worldeconomy . Given these constraints, competition for oil reserves is escalating between large consumers like the United States, the European Union, and China. Underlying these pressures is a host of growing environmental dangers. From deteriorating local air quality to the many dangers posed by climate change, there is widespread consensus in the scientific community that overreliance on fossil fuels must soon end if ecological catastrophe is to be avoided.3 If long-term stability is to be achieved, significant reforms must clearly be made in our global energy system. But can fundamental changes really be made in time to avoid severe strategic, commercial, social, and ecological crises? Although this is a question that cannot be definitively answered, the historical record shows that remarkable changes in the global energy system have occurred in the past, which should allow for some cautious optimism that similarly profound transformations can be achieved in the future. Consider, again, the example of Britain. With hindsight we can see that nineteenth-century analysts were wrong to claim that there were no alternatives to coal. How were they to know that a new resource—oil—would ease Britain’s energy crunch? After all, it played almost no role in providing energy in that society in the 1870s and 1880s. But by the beginning of the twentieth century, the British government and private industry were spearheading a shift toward increased reliance on this new resource. This transition was given added urgency as social and environmental tensions emerged around coal sectors. As a result of these intersecting forces, by the end of the First World War oil had become the fastest growing source of energy in Britain. This shift toward oil was repeated in country after country, beginning in the United States and spreading to countries as diverse as France, Russia, Japan, and Australia. In fact, within a few decades the first global energy shift of the modern era—toward increased reliance on oil—was well underway . And even as the world was rocked by the First World War, the Great Depression...