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L I S T O F F I G U R E S A N D TA B L E S Figures 4.1 Example of Advertising Targeting Data from TNSMI/CMAG 37 4.2 Example of Storyboard from TNSMI/CMAG 38 4.3 John Kerry Contrast Ad 40 4.4 Ken Salazar Contrast Ad 41 4.5 Tim Michels Contrast Ad 42 4.6 Distribution of Individual-Level Ad Exposure, 2000 ANES 46 5.1 Sponsorship of Bush Advertising 60 5.2 Sponsorship of Gore and Kerry Advertising 61 5.3 Cumulative Proportion of Ads by Week 64 5.4 Market-Level Ad Volumes for 2000 65 5.5 Market-Level Ad Volumes for 2004 66 6.1 Predicted Number of Presidential Likes and Dislikes by Ad Exposure 75 6.2 Predicted Probability of House Candidate Recall 79 6.3 Predicted Probability of Senate Candidate Recall 80 6.4 Predicted Probability of Senate Candidate Recall by Information 84 6.5 Predicted Probability of House Candidate Recall by Information 85 7.1 Predicted Effects of Advertising on Campaign Engagement 92 x L I S T O F F I G U R E S A N D TA B L E S 7.2 Predicted Effects of Advertising on Campaign Concern 93 7.3 Predicted Effects of Advertising on Evaluations of Elections 96 7.4 Predicted Effects of Advertising on Trust and Efficacy 97 7.5 Predicted Effects of General Information 101 7.6 Average Probabilities for Varied Exposure 103 8.1 Predicted Effects of Ad Exposure on Turnout 109 8.2 Predicted Effects of Ad Volume on Levels of Turnout 109 8.3 Predicted Effects of Ad Exposure on Political Activities by Partisanship 114 9.1 George Nethercutt Positive Ad 119 9.2 Predicted Effects of Tone on Information 124 9.3 Predicted Effects of Tone on Turnout 130 9.4 Predicted Policy Ad Effects on Information 133 9.5 Predicted Policy Ad Effects on Interest and Turnout 133 Tables 3.1 Summary of Advantages and Disadvantages of Approaches to Measuring Advertising Exposure 34 4.1 General Election Campaign Ads by Television Program, 2000 and 2004 44 5.1 Top Twenty Markets for General Election Advertising 54 5.2 Prediction of Ad Volume 54 5.3 Competitiveness and Tone in 2000 and 2004 Congressional Races 56 5.4 Prediction of Percentage of Negative Ads in a Race 57 5.5 Tone of General Election Ads by Sponsor 62 6.1 Standard Model Predictors 73 6.2 Effects of Ad Exposure on Presidential Candidate Knowledge 74 6.3 Effects of Ad Exposure on House and Senate Candidate Knowledge 78 6.4 Differential Effects of Ad Exposure on Presidential Candidate Knowledge 82 6.5 Differential Effects of Ad Exposure on House and Senate Candidate Knowledge 82 7.1 Effects of Advertising on Campaign Engagement 91 7.2 Effects of Advertising on Evaluations of Elections 94 L I S T O F F I G U R E S A N D TA B L E S xi 7.3 Effects of Advertising on Trust and Efficacy 97 7.4 Heterogeneity Effects on Campaign Engagement 98 7.5 Heterogeneity Effects on Evaluations of Elections 99 7.6 Heterogeneity Effects on Trust and Efficacy 99 7.7 Impact of General Information 100 8.1 Effects of Ad Exposure on Voter Turnout 108 8.2 Effects of Ad Exposure on Political Participation 111 8.3 Effects of Ad Exposure on Political Chatter 111 8.4 Interactive Effects of Ad Exposure on Voter Turnout 112 8.5 Interactive Effects of Advertising on Political Participation 113 8.6 Interactive Effects of Advertising on Political Chatter 113 9.1 Storyboard Policy Content by Ad Tone, 2000 and 2004 121 9.2 Tone and Information 123 9.3 Tone and Attitudes 126 9.4 Tone and Participation 129 9.5 Policy and Personality Negativity 132 A.1 Assessments of Tracking Data Accuracy 145 B.1 Accuracy of Advertising Tone 148 B.2 Accuracy of Advertising Focus (Policy of Personal Issues) 148 B.3 Kendall’s Tau-B Correlation for Two “Objective” Measures 149 ...

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