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C H A P T E R 9 Persistent Enemies and Cyberwar Rivalry Relations in an Age of Information Warfare Brandon Valeriano and Ryan Maness Introduction IN OCTOBER 2010 THE US CYBER COMMAND was constituted as an active military four-star command. The 2010 National Intelligence Annual Threat Assessment states that the United States is ‘‘severely threatened’’ by cyber attacks.1 With the increased importance of wars involving nonstate actors, the increase in the number of internal conflicts, and the scope of globalization, some scholars conclude that war and foreign policy have changed since 9/11.2 The belief that war has changed is bolstered by the conjecture that cyberspace is now an important military battlefield. The field of security studies might be considered to be at a crossroads due to these perceptions. Since the beginnings of armed conflict, enemies and combatants have always used the latest technology available to them to gain an advantage. Examples abound of states using technology, digital communication, and scientific espionage to challenge rivals. The difference now is that technology is the battlefield and the tactic at the same time. There is little to disconnect the means and objectives of cyberwar and cyber combat. This potential shift or revolution in foreign policymaking has to be evaluated on these terms. Has cyberspace become the battlefield, and what evidence do we have that this shift has changed relations between states? Yet very little has been done to study the actual impact of new tactics and weapons in the modern international battlefield. What is the true impact of cyberwar on the dynamics of conflict and interstate relations? This important question motivates our study in this volume. 139 140 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Persistent Enemies and Cyberwar This chapter focuses on persistent enemies or rivals. Interstate rivals are those states that perceive the other state as a threat and view interstate relations as a zero-sum game.3 Vasquez defines rivalry as a ‘‘relationship characterized by extreme competition, and usually psychological hostility, in which the issue positions of contenders are governed primarily by their attitude toward each other.’’4 To this point the data suggest that such pairs of states have experienced the most war in the interstate system since the end of the Napoleonic wars.5 If one were to predict who will fight whom in the future and which states have realistic security threats, then scholars should rightly focus on rivals as the main unit of interest.6 This study follows this advice and examines the impact of cyberwar or cyber tactics on the dynamics of rivalry. This chapter examines the theoretical and empirical impact of cyber strategies on rivalry relations. What sorts of behavioral expectations can we derive from a theory of information warfare during a rivalry? Our research path follows two lines of questioning . First, which rivals have cyber capabilities? To examine to the extent that informational battle tactics have changed diplomacy and military relations in the modern era, we must first examine the state of actual cyber capabilities. Do rivals have cyber-combat units, and if so, are these units tasked to target rivals or possible inflated threats? Our second question is what impact cyber capabilities have on rivalry relations. If a state has a cyber unit tasked to target a rival, does this operation actually affect interstate relations? To accomplish both tasks we present an examination of a few cases that explore the reach of cyber strategies in modern military structures among the rivalry population. How deeply have cyber capabilities and tactics penetrated rivalry dynamics? If there are cyber capabilities evident, do these tactics escalate tensions? These research questions are important if one is to examine and theorize about the extent and impact of cyber tactics in modern international relations. Before policymakers can discuss the need for cybersecurity or the coming danger of cyberwar, we must first understand the true nature of cyber conflict against dangerous and long-standing enemies. The study of cyberwar must move away from the study of conjecture and fears of the possible and into the study of actual modern enemies’ capabilities. This step is important, and this research effort is the first to examine both the theoretical and empirical impact of cyber technologies on conflict dynamics. The chapter proceeds to define the domain of our analysis—cyber conflict—and then moves toward an examination of the importance of rivalry studies. Based on other models of conflict, we...

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