At Home Among Strangers: Exploring the Deaf Community in the United States

9. The Theory at Work

9 THE THEORY AT WORK It is time to put the theory to work-to make predictions about the future. That, after all, is the raison d'€tre of a theory. It must expand our knowledge by anticipating the outcomes of future events. In so doing, a useful theory generates research by suggesting otherwise unexpected relations and stimulating efforts to alter circumstances so as to generate particular results. Indeed, as the logic of science contends, theories cannot be valid or invalid; they are merely more or less useful. Their value depends on whether or not they generate fresh insights and lead to more research. A theory should not be backed against a wall and forced to account for every development in the subject it chooses to explain, but its coverage must be sufficiently broad to encompass the subject's principal aspects. In taking up the challenge to predict, the theory begins with possible changes in its five factors. How will alterations in the demographic composition of the Deaf population affect the Deaf community ? What will be the effects of a differing mix of attitudes of the general population toward its disabled members? Will the relatively new approach of linguists to American Sign Language affect the Deaf community in significant ways? How will new developments in education and technology influence the course of the Deaf community's development? And what will happen when the milieu changes? DEMOGRAPHY Consider three possibilities-the number of Deaf people decreases, stays the same, increases. What would the theory say about each 222 AT HOME AMONG STRANGERS case? The first instance is unlikely, though it could occur either by reducing the causes of deafness or by curing deafness. The only chance of the latter on the immediate horizon is the cochlear implant , which will be discussed later in this chapter. As for reducing the causes of deafness, that is always possible, though unlikely. If deafness decreases, the Deaf community would persist until it reaches the point below which it cannot support its organizational infrastructure. Considering that the Deaf community came into being when there were fewer than 10,000 Deaf persons in the United States and that there are presently about 500,000, the chances remain remote that a decline so large that it prevents the Deaf community from continuing will occur on a national level. However, local conditions could certainly change drastically. An area that had a number of Deaf people adequate to maintain a local Deaf community might lose a large portion of its Deaf population. Recalling that Wyoming did not have a state association until its Deaf population reached about a thousand people, one can readily imagine situations in which a state's population dwindles below an adequate number to maintain its statewide Deaf community. Under such circumstances, the theory would predict that the remaining Deaf people would, to the extent they were able, move to an area more populated with Deaf people-either within the state or in another state. The affiliation factor, the desire for companionship with other Deaf people, would be expected to operate. There is a possibility that, over the next half century, the size of the Deaf population will decline or remain about the same as it is now, though an increase in the number of Deaf people over the next few decades is more likely. Hearing impairment has grown dramatically in the United States and indications are that it will continue to increase. Many more people will be deaf and hard of hearing in the next few decades than ever before. The number of Deaf people will increase, too. The estimated size of the total hearing-impaired population can be calculated by considering the changes in rates over the last thirty years and projecting them forward along with the estimated growth in the total population (see Table 7). The figures for late-deafened and Deaf segments are derived by applying the ratios of those conditions to the total hearing-impaired population. The ratios used for the calculations are 1:1.15 for hard of hearing, 1:9.85 for latedeafened , and 1:32.59 for Deaf. Applying these ratios to the estimated rates for all hearing-impaired persons yields the rates shown The Theory at Work 223 Table 7 Current and Projected Rates for Impaired Hearing, Deafness , and Early Deafness: United States, 1980-2050 Rates per 100,000 All Impaired Hard of Early Year Hearing...