Aristotle's Concept of Chance: Accidents, Cause, Necessity, and Determinism

Introduction

INTRODUCTION – “A’s theory of chance and its implications have a fascination of their own, which must be my excuse for allowing them what some may consider disproportionate space.” – W.K.C. Guthrie, A History...VI, 233-4 The topic of chance is one with which all human beings are confronted in day-to-day life. Everyone knows how it feels to have good luck and bad luck, and everyone attributes certain unexpected outcomes to chance. Chance is the spice of the plots of innumerable works of literature. At the level of techniques it is necessary to know about chance from a mathematical and statistical point of view, if one is in the business e.g. of gambling or insurance. Finally, scientists in many fields use the concepts of chance and probability, e.g. in physics , physiology, natural history, genetics, and evolutionary biology.1 Thus chance is a topic of concern to man at many levels, as a day-today phenomenon, as a technique and in science. It is also a topic that has far-reaching implications, the depths of which can be analysed only by philosophy. The importance of the topic of chance to the philosopher, apart from the intrinsic interest in analysing this highly complex concept, lies in the fact that chance has been invoked by many distinguished thinkers to explain the order in the universe, the origin of life as well as human freedom and happiness. These topics are, of course, among those of foremost concern to any philosopher. Aristotle deals with chance in the Physics as part of his study of causality and was clearly 1 Cf. Gigerenzer, The Empire of Chance... 2 ARISTOTLE’S CONCEPT OF CHANCE strongly motivated to study the topic by his concern to refute the attribution of the order in the universe to chance by Democritus.2 In his ethical works he examines the extent to which chance plays a role in happiness. He does not accept that freedom is explicable by chance. In his biological works Aristotle also uses the concept of chance to explain the origin of some forms of life. In Chapter 9 of this study I shall suggest that Aristotle’s analysis has lost none of its profundity in the light of the contemporary reference to chance. In the history of philosophy numerous thinkers have given an account of the meaning of chance, and it is not possible in this volume to examine all of them.3 However, it may be said without oversimpli fication that six main views of chance have been held apart from that of Aristotle, which, as I hope will become clear, goes further than any of them.4 The first of these views is referred to by Aristotle at the start of Phys. II, iv. It is that of those who say that nothing happens by chance, but that there is a definite cause of everything we say happens by chance, i.e. chance is a misleading term conveying no content .5 This is the view held later by Francis Bacon, for whom chance is his prime example of the idols of the market-place (idola fori).6 2 Cf. Aristotle’s indignation in Phys. II, iv, 196 b 1-3 and the conclusion of Phys. II, vi. 3 For example, Hegel’s interpretation of chance in terms of his philosophical system goes beyond the scope of this volume. For the view of e.g. Albertus Magnus, cf. Cioffari, Fortune and Fate…92-103; Verbeke, Le hasard et la fortune… Cf. Herzog-Hauser, Tyche… for an overall view of the etymology of WXYFKWXYFK as a mythical figure, WXYFK in ancient epic and lyric poetry, in tragedy, comedy, rhetoric , history, novels, also for the cult of the goddess 7XYFKWXYFK in art etc. Cf. further Berry, The History and Development of the Concept of ΘEIA MOIPA and ΘEIA TΥΧH down to and including Plato…; Lassel, De fortunae in Plutarchi operibus notione ; Rösiger, Die Bedeutung der Tyche bei den späteren griechischen Historikern, besonders bei Demetrios von Phaleron; Ruhl, Tyche…; Schlemm, De fontibus Plutarchi comm. de aud. poetis et de fortuna; Strohm, Tyche. Zur Schicksalsauffassung bei Pindar und den frühgriechischen Dichtern. 4 Soontiens, Evolutie...10 lists eight meanings of chance in contemporary biology , which can, however, be grouped under the six more general interpretations now to be dealt with in the text. 5 For this view cf. further the 3HUL7HYFQKVI, 3-4 in the Corpus Hippocraticum...