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7. Intelligence and National Security
- Johns Hopkins University Press
- Chapter
- Additional Information
7 Intelligence and National Security The Framers of the Constitution foresaw, in Alexander Hamilton’s words, that “accurate and comprehensive knowledge of foreign politics” would inevitably be required in the management of America’s external relations.1 Intelligence, managed prudently, would be a useful and indeed necessary capability for the infant republic.2 More than two hundred years later, national security policy makers in the more mature American republic still recognize their reliance on, and indebtedness to, accurate information about the external world. When intelligence fails, as it did on the issue of whether Saddam Hussein’s regime had weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) prior to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the consequences for U.S. policy can be significant. What Is Intelligence? The concept of intelligence is often confused with information.3 Although information is anything that can be known, intelligence is a subset that includes information selected or tailored to respond to policy requirements or needs: “Intelligence refers to information relevant to a government’s formulation and implementation of policy to further its national security interests and to deal with threats from actual or potential adversaries.”4 Although many associate the term strictly with military information , intelligence for national security is more than a description and analysis of armed capabilities. It also can include political, economic, social, cultural, and technological aspects of an adversary.5 One way of categorizing intelligence is to refer to the time horizon in which intelligence is expected to be used.6 Strategic intelligence examines issues with long-term implications, such as political and economic trends over time. Tactical intelligence, on the other hand, responds to immediate, 147 148 American National Security pressing concerns and is intended to inform near-term decisions.7 Some of the threats now present in the external environment, such as new nuclear weapons states or terrorist networks, have resulted in increased concern over effectiveness at gathering and using extremely time-sensitive intelligence. As a recent study summarizes , “the first priority should always be to get there before the bomb goes off.”8 Intelligence professionals exist to support decision makers. The role that members of the intelligence community play in policy making is ideally that of “seasoned and experienced advisors,” who add expert analysis to collected information .9 Intelligence professionals attempt to envision possible or likely futures by analyzing and synthesizing current data and provide decision makers with background projections against which to measure policy alternatives. They may also develop policy options for policy makers and provide an analytical basis for choice among the options. An example of this direct policy use is furnished by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s specific request to the CIA, shortly after the 1973 Middle East War, “to examine all aspects of possible Sinai withdrawal lines on the basis of political, military, geographic, and ethnic considerations. Eight alternative lines were prepared for the Sinai, a number of which Secretary Kissinger used in mediating the negotiations between Egypt and Israel.”10 Although the best intelligence cannot guarantee sound policy, policy made with inadequate intelligence support can succeed only by accident. The Intelligence Production Process Intelligence is divided into a five-part cycle: planning and direction; collection; processing and exploitation; analysis and production; and dissemination. As with all theoretical constructs, the intelligence cycle model is not perfect in describing reality .11 Although an actual intelligence process may involve more complex and dynamic interactions, the conceptual clarity of the intelligence cycle is of great utility in structuring thinking about core intelligence functions. The five stages of the intelligence cycle are depicted in Figure 7.1 and will be discussed in turn below. Planning & Direction Collection Processing & Exploitation Dissemination Analysis & Production Source: Adapted from www.intelligence.gov/2-business.shtml FIG. 7.1 The Intelligence Cycle [3.238.62.119] Project MUSE (2024-03-28 16:10 GMT) Intelligence and National Security 149 Planning and Direction. Consumers (policy makers and their advisers) take an active role in the planning and direction phase, which in turn influences the entire intelligence process.12 The planning stage of the cycle begins with the determination of the consumers’ specific information needs or a reaffirmation of continuing interests. Intelligence managers review consumer requests, and, if ongoing efforts or existing databases are unable to satisfy them, these requests are approved as new intelligence requirements. These requirements are then tasked to agencies with the requisite operational capabilities. Requirements developed through this process may be long term...