A Theory of Parties and Electoral Systems

4. An Intensive Test: Electoral Experience

An IntensiveTest:Electoral Experience THE extensive test of the predictions based on electoral law revealed results that were clearly confirmatory. If some of the correlations observed were less than spectacular, many others were remarkably strong, especially in light of the simplicity of the theory and the quality ofthe data. In part, as illustrated by the problem of properly coding the intraparty preference vote in those systems in which it is available but not regularly important, the lowcorrelations stem from the difficulties of operationalizing theoretical concepts consistently across widely varying systems without seriously distorting them in some systems. In part, as illustrated by the problem of PR with ordinal choice, the low correlations stem from the contradictory effects of two aspects of the same electoral law. In part, as illustrated by the inability to predict whethera party wouldbe factionalized or fractionalized, they stem from the fact that electoral laws are only one part, albeit a major one, of the environment in whichparties and candidates compete for office. AH of these problems are natural accompaniments of extensive tests of deductive theories, The solution, use of more sensitive analysis, requires the greater attention to detail characteristic of the intensive approach. In this chapter and the onesto follow, the theory developed inchapter 2r will be subjected to such a test, based on study of the Labour and Conservative parties in Britain, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in Ireland, and the Democrazia Cristiana (DC) and Partito Socialista Italiano (PSI) in Italy. Initial Predictions This chapter is concerned with the actualoperation ofthe electoral systems of the three countries, while the next focuses on campaign and nomination experience. In both, the analysis begun in chapter 2S will be extended and refined, and both the ultimateand the intermediatepredictions will be subjected to test Before beginningthis intensive analysis, however, 60 4 An Intensive Test: Electoral Experience 61 it will be useful to describe the electoral Jaws of the three countries to be considered, and to suggest the gross predictions that can be derived based on them alone, British parliamentary elections are conducted under a system of singlemember plurality voting, Each voter is given a ballot listingthe names of a number of candidates; party is not mentioned on the ballot and indeed is unknown to British electoral law.1 The only mark the voter may make without invalidatingher ballot is a singlecross next to the one candidate she wishes to support. At the end of the polling, the candidate from each constituency who has obtained the most votes is declared elected* regardless of how well other candidates in the district may have done.2 The British is thus a plurality system with categoric choice. Since each district returns only one member, the average magnitudeof the districts in terms of voters per district and voters per deputy is the same, roughly 62,000 in 1970, Since each party nominates only one candidate in each district, and that candidate formally is selected by the party's members (actually inmost cases by its local centralcommittee), there isno intraparty choice by the average voter and candidates of the same party need not compete against each other for votes.3 Constituencies are large both in absolute size and in terms of voters per candidate; it thereforeisto be expected that localismwill be of little effect in campaigning.4 Also because of the size of the constituencies, fairly extensive campaign organizations and reliance on mass media should be common. The single-member plurality system should lead to a contest focused almost exclusively between the top two candidates in each constituency, and the numberof parties that are important in any way will be limited. Since these generally will not be the same parties in all constituencies, the campaign should take the form of a pragmatic appeal to the immediate policy concerns of the voters, rather than to complex or abstract ideologies. The number of issues of special relevance should be small, but because choice is categoric, issue positions shouldbe articulated clearly. With no intraparty competition, there should be only one campaign organization for each party in every constituency and candidates should have no incentive to develop independent access to political resources, Alliances among parties are not to be expected, and should only take the form of the withdrawal of one challenger to the benefit of another. The expectation, therefore, is that British parties will tend to be issue oriented and cohesive, but not particularly ideological. Elections in Eire are conducted under the single transferable ballot system. Again the...