Asserting Native Resilience: Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations Face the Climate Change

SWINOMISH CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVE

PAGE 133 III. CURRENT RESPONSES System Cooperative (SRSC). The report describes the scientific data and potential climate change scenarios, assesses possible local impacts, and identifies specific areas of potential risk and vulnerability to climate change effects. Key Findings The fourth assessment of climate change released in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents a consensus among scientists worldwide that rising greenhouse gas concentrations are unequivocally attributable to human activities. In an effort to understand the response of climate to increased greenhouse gas emissions in the future, the IPCC coordinated global climate change modeling experiments carried out by the international research community under various emissions scenarios. The models under all scenarios point to a warmer future climate, with the rate of warming correlated to the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. The key to preparing for the potential impacts of climate change is to understand the extent of possible effects on our regional biological, physical, and human systems under future scenarios of varying ranges. To assess the range of impacts and the potential risks posed to human and natural systems, this report considers several regional climate change scenarios, from low to high impacts, to accommodate the inherent uncertainty in the climate change models and future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. This approach is consistent with similar analyses and efforts by other governmental entities, such as King County, Washington, and the California Coastal Commission. Based on assessment of current documented models and scenarios, the principal areas and resources within the Swinomish Indian Reservation vulnerable to climate change impacts are shorelines, beaches, lowlying terrain, and forests, along with the assets within those areas. Impacts to some of these vulnerable areas are potentially high within twenty to fifty years, increasing through the end of the century and beyond. Other areas and resources may have moderate impacts during this time frame. Significant among these potential impacts are the following: a Over 1,100 acres of Swinomish Reservation lands, or approximately 15 percent of Reservation uplands, are potentially at risk of inundation from increasing sea level rise, including the only agricultural lands within the Reservation, the Tribe’s primary economic development lands, and sensitive shoreline areas. a Approximately 160 residential structures are potentially at risk of inundation from sea level rise and/or the benefit of broader resources, not only in terms of financial and institutional resources, but they also have technical personnel with enough experience. They can make quicker decisions (if they choose to do so) and recognize that they themselves could take the initiative and make decisions that would actually have effects. When they do make those decisions, they have ripple political effects on all other jurisdictions around them. Understanding that is crucial, and I think the tribes in the Northwest have demonstrated their understanding over the years. When they have taken the initiative, they have developed political leverage, proactively defined the agenda, and they have identified a process by which they will achieve a solution—and they proposed a solution that can be negotiated. The intergovernmental framework needed has yet to be developed, and when it is developed, it becomes possible for Indian nations to act as equal partners in the international dialogue to develop adaptation strategies and effect responses to climate change. SWINOMISH CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVE Executive Summary of the Swinomish Climate Change Initiative Draft Impact Assessment Technical Report (October 2009) In recognition of a growing body of scientific evidence and in response to certain specific local events, the Swinomish Indian Senate issued a proclamation in 2007 directing action to study the possible effects of climate change on the Swinomish Indian Reservation community, lands, and resources and determine appropriate responses. Following this proclamation, the Tribe initiated a two-year project in late 2008 to assess how climate change may affect the Swinomish Indian Reservation and to develop strategies to address potential impacts. The outcome of this project is the production of three key reports: this Impact Assessment Technical Report, a preliminary Adaptation Strategy Report, and a Community Action Plan with recommendations for future adaptation options and strategies. This technical report comprises the first milestone of the project. It represents the work of a multidisciplinary team led by staff of the Swinomish Office of Planning and Community Development, in partnership with the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG), and with further scientific assistance from Skagit River PAGE 134 ASSERTING NATIVE RESILIENCE: PACIFIC RIM INDIGENOUS NATIONS FACE THE CLIMATE CRISIS the Puget Sound to span from very low estimates of 16 cm...