The Reporter's Handbook on Nuclear Materials, Energy & Waste Management

Section 5: Global Warming and Fuel Sources

| 201 Section 5 Risk Perception and Risk Communication GlobalWarming and Fuel Sources Written by Michael M. Greenberg, based in part on an interview with Paul Meier, with comments by Sandra Quinn Background This discussion of global warming is in a section about perception and communication because global warming has become a prominent political issue that many politicians use in their public statements to tie together nuclear power and climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a heat-trapping gas that acts like a blanket, thereby keeping the earth warm enough to support life. The earth has been trapping solar energy and building carbon-bond fossil fuels from the decay of organic material for hundreds of millions of years. However, humans have been rapidly consuming fossil fuels, much of it during the past century. The oceans, soils, and plants absorb CO2 out of the atmosphere, but CO2 buildup has been faster than these natural processes can accommodate. As CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the planet is getting warmer. Warming of the planet by additional CO2, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and water vapor (not clouds) is called “global warming.” This brief summarizes the issue and comments on the likelihood that nuclear power can substantially contribute to curbing greenhouse gas emissions. The consumption of fossil fuels for energy production is the consensus primary cause. The Energy Information Administration reported that in 2005, over 86% of primary energy was produced by petroleum (36.8%), coal (26.6%), and natural gas (22.9%). The remainder was produced by hydroelectric power (6.3%) and nuclear electric power (6.0%); geothermal, solar, wind, waste, and wood were responsible for 0.9%. Global energy demand has 202 | The Reporter’s Handbook: Briefs grown rapidly and will probably continue to grow because energy use has been fundamental to growing populations and growing economies. What Are the Risks? Increased storm intensity, changing precipitation patterns, and increased heat are some of the symptoms of global warming. Urban areas along coasts and major rivers face increased flooding. Infrastructure is undermined and damaged by storms and erosion, and agricultural areas could have too much rain or not enough rain. Heat stress in urban areas is deadly to vulnerable populations , as demonstrated in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003. Certain regions of the developing world are particularly susceptible to famine, water shortages, and disease outbreaks. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered the authoritative source on the science and impacts of climate change. Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Environmental Programme of the United Nations, IPCC prepares assessments based on the weight of the scientific evidence. IPCC includes representatives from many nations, which most observers consider a major strength, but some think slows down and tempers their work. IPCC published reports in 1990 (with a 1992 supplement), 1995, 2001, and 2007. The 2007 report, like its predecessors, is voluminous—notably, the observations appear to be less equivocal than those in the earlier reports. For example, the majority of the global increase in temperature during the past half century is directly attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas accumulations. World temperature, the 2007 report notes, is likely to rise between 1.1° and 6.4°C (2.0° and 11.5°F) during this century. Sea levels are likely to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.08 to 23.22 inches). The planet will experience more frequent warm spells, heat waves, and heavy rainfalls. Tropical storms are likely to increase in number and intensity, along with high tides. Also, droughts will be exacerbated, along with the continued melting of glaciers and ice caps. IPCC observes that the current greenhouse gas blanket will produce impacts for the duration of this century, even if greenhouse gas levels were to be quickly stabilized, which seems highly unlikely. In a few decades, IPCC expects tens of millions of people will be hungry because of changing climatic conditions (added to the many millions that are already suffering from hunger). Millions will face an increasing frequency of floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and many more will face drought conditions. In the United States, conditions will not be as serious, but compared with today’s environment could be much more difficult for people who live in low-lying Global Warming and Fuel Sources | 203 areas, people who farm, and people whose livelihoods depend on predictable weather patterns. Many who already suffer seasonal allergies will face longer pollen...