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263 Unlike Asia, where population aging is the dominant population issue, population growth and issues related to a large youthful population remain a major concern in Pacific Island countries (PICs). The experience of PICs seems to indicate that rapid growth in some countries and mass emigration in others, and associated high dependency ratios, hinder development. Many countries experienced higher population than economic growth in the 1990s and early 2000s, and evidence of increasing poverty has emerged— a lack of opportunity and low and unstable income (Abbott and Pollard 2004) rather than extreme income poverty and hunger witnessed in developing countries in other regions of the world. Although the Pacific is varied, economic, demographic, and social progress has been slow everywhere, whether it is fertility reduction, life expectancy increase, job creation, or progress toward achieving the MDGs (Millennium Development Goals), a series of UN demographic, social, health, economic, and environmental targets linked to economic and human development. This chapter will consider recent demographic trends in the Pacific in the fields of fertility, mortality, migration, age structure, and population and development. A brief review of MDG attainment will provide a general view of development progress in the region, helping define major issues.1 Population Trends and Age Structures Fertility In Polynesia, after rapid decline in the late 1960s and 1970s, fertility transition stalled in the 1980s, with TFR2 between 3.5 and 4.5 (Rallu and Ahlburg 1999), and the situation has not changed much since then (see Figure 22.1). TFRs have recently risen to 2.9 and 3.9 in the Cook Islands and Tuvalu, countries that appeared to be headed toward replacement fertility. In the high-population-density atoll countries of Micronesia , latecomers to the fertility transition such as RMI (Republic of the Marshall Islands) experienced rapid decline in fertility in the second half of the 1980s and the early 1990s, but TFR stabilized around 4.5 according to 1999 census and 2007 DHS (Demographic and Health Survey) data. FSM (Federated States of Micronesia) has also shown declining though still high fertility with a TFR of 3.4. Kiribati’s fertility development is more complex. Kiribati experienced early fertility decline to 4.5 in 1970–1975 but this was short-lived because the Catholic Church opposed the government’s family planning policy and TFR increased to 4.9 in the late 1970s and fluctuated around 4.5. A new period of decline was observed beginning in the late 1990s and by 2005 the TFR was 3.5. Palau is the only PIC to have completed the fertility transition with the TFR reaching 2.0 in 1995–2000 and remaining below replacement level, 1.94, in 2000–2005. In Melanesia, Fiji has seen further fertility decline from 3.1 in 1996 to 2.7 in 2003–2004. The decline is mostly due to changes in Indian fertility, with TFR falling below replacement in 1998 and reaching 1.9 in 2003–2004; it was even lower (1.7) after the 2000 coup. Fijian TFR is much higher and stagnating around 3.3 in 1999–2004 after a drop from 3.6 in 1996–1998.3 For other Melanesian countries (or Western Melanesia4 ), vital registration is incomplete and we must rely on indirect estimates based on census data that are sometimes questionable. Based on 1999 and 2000 censuses, TFR was 4.8 in Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, and 4.6 in PNG. Because the total growth rate of population exceeds the natural rate 22 Demography A Slow or Stalled Demographic Transition Affecting Development Jean Louis Rallu and Dennis Ahlburg Figure 22.1. Total fertility rate in selected Pacific Island countries, 1960–2005. 264 ■ The Pacific Islands Table 22.1 Demographic Indicators for Pacific Island Countries and Territories Mid-2011 population (thousands) Land area (km2 ) Population density (per km2 ) Urban population (percentage urban) Crude birth rate (per thousand) Crude death rate (per thousand) Melanesia Fiji 852 18,272 47 52 20.8 8.5 New Caledonia 252 19,103 13 67 15.4 5.7 Papua New Guinea 7,014 462,243 15 13 29.8 7.5 Solomon Is. 552 28,370 19 19 31.3 5.6 Vanuatu 246 12,190 20 26 29.2 4.8 Micronesia FSM 102 701 146 23 24.6 6.0 Guam 192 541 355 93 17.9 5.6 Kiribati 103 811 127 44 27.8 8.3 Marshall Is. 55 181 304 72 31.1 5.8 Nauru 10 21 476 100 29...

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