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RESTORING THE ROMANOVS Boris Yeltsin yearns for powers that his constitution denies him. Don’t be surprised if he solves the problem with a typically Russian move. Nearly five years ago Vladimir Kvint, a former Soviet economist, predicted in Forbes (February 19, 1990) that the old Soviet Union would break apart. At the time most people scoffed. But come apart it did. Now a professor at Fordham University’s Graduate School of Business and a consultant on emerging markets at Arthur Andersen LLP, New York, Kvint makes another contrarian prediction. This will be very hard for a non-Russian to understand, but do not be surprised if Russia restores the monarchy with a Romanov sitting on the refurbished throne. If this sounds outrageously far-fetched, it sounds that way simply because people do not understand how bad the situation in Russia has become. I never thought a regime could be as corrupt as the old communist system, but the present regime is giving it a close race. Russia today is not entirely a democracy. It is more a system of soft-core totalitarianism. While it is more democratic than it was under Gorbachev’s rule, it is less democratic and more totalitarian than Spain was under General Franco or Chile under General Pinochet . That is a fact. Boris Yeltsin of 1994 is not the Boris Yeltsin of 1991. He loves power and will do whatever it takes to hold on to it. Russia’s presidential election is scheduled for 1996, and the campaigning will start next year. But so unhappy are most Russians with their lot today that Yeltsin knows he cannot win an election; he would be lucky to get 15% of the vote. There is no party or group that could hope to do better. That is why I predict a return to monarchy. It will prove to be the only way Yeltsin can hang on to power. As market relationships have developed among private companies, Yeltsin’s power to control the economy has weakened. That this should happen is not surprising to people in the West. Democracy Forbes, December 5, 1994, pp. 145–152. 372 the emerging market of russia is, after all, a system of decentralization, with power and decision making spread widely across society. But Russians are not comfortable with decentralization. The Russian tradition is to look for a leader, for a ‘‘father of the nation.’’ Hence the surprising nostalgia for Stalin. Even now, when all Stalin’s crimes against humanity are well known, many Russians, young and old, continue to display his portrait. This does not indicate nostalgia for communism. It is nostalgia for a strong leader. The idea of communism did not kill the concept of adulating one leader. The communist myth was that collective rule was vested in the Politburo, but it was only a myth. There was always a strong man at the center of power. For 74 years of communism, there was a succession of dictators with tremendous personal power: Lenin, Stalin , Khrushchev, Brezhnev, then two grandfathers who, despite illness , controlled the country: Andropov and Chernenko. Then there was Gorbachev, a communist in liberal’s clothes. Now it’s Yeltsin’s turn—a totalitarian in democratic clothing. Yeltsin has learned well the lessons of Gorbachev. Gorbachev was the first leader who thought it was possible to democratize society a little—just a little—and still retain dictatorial power. Yeltsin has not wanted to make the same mistake. He will not let power slip away from him as it did from Gorbachev. The first indication that Yeltsin would ignore democratic ideas and statements was when he directed his artillery against the first democratically elected parliament in Russia in October 1993—the same parliament that restricted the activity of the Communist Party in 1991. To protect his position, Yeltsin has placed under his control the former KGB, the ministry of the interior (militia), border guards, and the army. There remains a formidable barrier to Yeltsin’s ambitions to recentralize power in his hands: the Russian constitution. He has continually invoked and promoted the constitution as a way of destroying his political enemies, most notably Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoi and former parliament leader Ruslan Khasbulatov. During the October 1993 elections he attacked the old constitution as undemocratic, which was true. He initiated the writing of a new one that was almost equally undemocratic, giving all power to the presidency. Only one problem remained for Yeltsin: The constitution calls for [18.191.228.88...

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