The Global Emerging Market in Transition: Articles, Forecasts, and Studies

Election Results in the Russian Duma

ELECTION RESULTS IN THE RUSSIAN DUMA As usual, the American mass media is overestimating political changes in Russia and their implication for business. The conventional wisdom about the election results in Russia is that the communists have come back to parliament. The communists won approximately 22% of the vote, the party of the opportunist Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky won about 11%, and less than 9.5% was won by Viktor Chernomyrdin’s party called ‘‘Our Home Is Russia.’’ According to Western popular opinion, Chernomyrdin’s party is the one hope to protect freedom and the market economy in Russia. Don’t be misled. Remember December 1992 and January 1993 when Yegor Gaidar was forced to resign as acting prime minister, and the American media was unified in its opinion that the then new Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, the ‘‘apparatchik’’ and communist, would cause Russia to revert back to the dark days of communism. When I published an article in The New York Times in January 1993, I received negative letters asking how I could support the apparatchik Chernomyrdin! It is interesting that today he is viewed as the only protector of freedom. This is the image the press provides. But it is misleading for American business. What is the reality? In 1991 when the Soviet Union disappeared, and the people spoke about a ‘‘velvet’’ (bloodless) revolution , democrats in Russia had not yet come into power. The highest levels of communist apparatchiks were replaced by second-class apparatchiks (a younger generation from the provinces). The appointment of Gaidar was a move typical of the communist bureaucrats . Who was Gaidar? He worked for a magazine called The Communist, the party’s main public relations machine. When, as acting prime minister, he made serious mistakes, throwing 90% of the people below the poverty line, President Yeltsin had no choice but to replace him. Yeltsin then appointed the much more experienced Chernomyrdin, who served in the Communist Party, but The Kvint Newsletter, 3, No. 3 (1995). 256 the emerging market of russia whose executive experience was in heavy industry, mostly natural gas and oil. Definition of Communism The term ‘‘communism’’ in Russia also has varying meanings whose subtleties the West does not understand. In Russia there is another Communist Party, ‘‘Communists-Labor-Russia-for-the-Soviet-Union,’’ that is trying to restore the former Soviet Union. This party did not attract enough votes to secure a party spot in parliament. The ‘‘Communist Party of the Russian Federation’’ received 22% of the vote. Together with its members who secured seats individually and its main ally, the Agricultural Party, they control 33% of the seats in the new Duma. This group is not against cooperation with the West. Nor is there an agenda to take military actions in the world. What is its position? It’s a socialist democratic party. One interesting side note is that of the six members who organized the coup in August 1991, two are members of the Communist Party and were elected to the Duma: Anatoly Lukiynov, the speaker of the former USSR parliament, and General Varennikov, of the army. Through personal experience, I strongly believe that after 70 years of communism in Russia very few people (with the possible exception of some old-timers and a few young extremists) would like to rebuild communism in Russia. The overwhelming majority know what Stalin’s Communist Party accomplished; at least 20 million people were killed or died in prisons. Is it possible to believe that 22% of the population would like to revert to that? Voting Against, Not For What are they voting for? The public is not voting for a particular candidate or party; rather, it is voting against Yeltsin’s government. They are the same 25% of the people who in 1993 voted for Zhirinovsky . However, in 1993 they had no choice. They did not want to vote for Yeltsin (they thought that he did not care about the day-today life of people). Because Yeltsin sent his political rivals to prison, they voted for the opportunist Zhirinovsky. This election was differ- election results in the duma 257 ent. There were 43 parties on the ballot. People voted for the party that paid attention to their everyday needs. Because the Chernomyrdin party, created only this year, was viewed by many as the party of Yeltsin, it was a vote against Yeltsin. All the hundreds of millions of dollars spent by...