Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto

9. An International Policy Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era

After seven years of uncertainty, the Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992) came into force in February 2005 but without participation by the United States. With Russian ratification late in 2004, requirements for implementation were met, namely ratification by a minimum of 55 nations (127, in fact), including—importantly, since this was the binding constraint—Annex I (industrialized ) countries representing at least 55 percent of 1990 industrialized world emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). The impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on emissions of greenhouse gases, targeted for the compliance period 2008–12, will be much less than originally anticipated. Nonparticipation by the United States is quantitatively important, and the rules written at the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) of the UNFCCC in Bonn and Marakesh in 2001 had the effect of significantly relaxing the aggregate target. But a scientific consensus has continued to form regarding the likelihood of future climate change due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases;1 and economic analysis increasingly points to the wisdom of some kind of An International Policy Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era robert n. stavins 9 145 This chapter draws upon Robert N. Stavins, “After Kyoto: Climate Change Strategies for the United Nations,” paper prepared for United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, April 24, 2002; Robert N. Stavins, “Forging a More Effective Global Climate Treaty,” Environment 46, no. 10 (2004): 23–30; Robert N. Stavins, “Beyond Kyoto: Getting Serious about Climate Change,” Milken Institute Review 7, no. 1 (2005): 28–37. It has benefited from comments by conference participants. 10865-10_CH09_rev.qxd 12/10/07 11:42 AM Page 145 policy action.2 Thus there is a dilemma. The Kyoto Protocol has come into force without U.S. participation; its effects on climate change will be trivial; but the economic and scientific consensus points to the need for a credible international approach. What can be done? A reasonable starting point is the UNFCCC, which was signed by 161 nations and ratified by 50—including the United States—and which entered into force in 1994. Among other things, the UNFCCC established the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities,” meaning that all nations should engage in the solution (because of the global-commons nature of the problem) but that different countries could participate in different ways.3 If the UNFCCC provides a reasonable starting point, can the Kyoto Protocol provide the way forward? It is helpful to examine the protocol in terms of its major architectural elements. Its targets apply only to industrialized nations; it contains ambitious, short-term emissions reduction targets but no long-term targets; and it provides flexibility through market-based mechanisms such as tradable permits. This architecture has been widely criticized, chiefly because it would impose high costs, fail to provide for full participation by developing countries, and generate modest short-term climate benefits while failing to provide a long-term solution. On the other hand, the argument has been made that the Kyoto Protocol is essentially “the only game in town” and that, instead of suggesting alternatives, analysts “should concentrate on convincing policymakers how to get the long-term climate policy instruments right that build on Kyoto’s foundations.”4 Thus some analysts see the agreement as deeply flawed.5 Others see it as an acceptable first step.6 But virtually everyone agrees that the Kyoto Protocol is not sufficient to meet the overall challenge and that further steps will be required. As Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, wrote in 2003, “whether or not the Protocol enters into force, the same fundamental challenge remains: engaging all countries that are major emitters of greenhouse gases in a common long-term effort. We need a durable strategy that can take us beyond Kyoto.”7 A Three-Part Policy Architecture I outline the basic features of a post-Kyoto international global climate policy agreement, which contains three essential elements: a means to ensure that key nations, both industrialized and developing, are eventually involved; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets (employing a cost-effective pattern over time); and inclusion of market-based policy instruments. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change. 146 robert n. stavins 10865-10_CH09_rev.qxd 12/10/07 11:42 AM Page 146 Expanding Participation Broad participation by major industrialized nations and...