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Notes to Chapter One 1. Quoted in Steven Erlanger,“Germans Vote in a Tight Election in which Bush, Hitler, and Israel Became Key Issues,” New York Times, September 22, 2002, p. 14. 2. Samuel Huntington, “The U.S.–Decline or Renewal?” Foreign Affairs (Winter 1998–99), p. 93. Elsewhere Huntington writes,“Healthy cooperation with Europe is the prime antidote for the loneliness of U.S. superpowerdom”; Huntington, “The Lonely Superpower,” Foreign Affairs (March–April 1999), p. 48. 3. Joseph Nye, The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone (Oxford University Press, 2002), pp.1–12, quote on p. 29. 4.“Jeder dritte Jugendliche protestiert gegen den Krieg,”Spiegel Online, March 29, 2003 (www.spiegel.de). See also Ian Johnson, “Conspiracy Theories about Sept. 11 Get Hearing in Germany,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2003, p. A12. 5. This phrase was used by German defense minister Peter Struck, in trying to minimize the depth of damage done to the German-U.S. relationship, when he met with Donald Rumsfeld just after the German election. 6. David Frum and Richard Perle, An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror (New York: Random House, 2003), p. 248. 7.“Freund oder Feind?” Der Spiegel, no. 40, September 30, 2002, p. 118. 8. Schmidt made this remark at the height of the conflict to a group at the Hamburg state mission in Bonn, in the author’s presence. 9. The concept of “action dispensability,”which is used in the study of the impact of personality in politics, is relevant in this context. It refers to the circumstances under which the actions of single individuals are likely to have a greater or lesser effect on the course of events. The more malleable the environment, the greater the impact of individual personalities. See, for example, Gordon J. Di Renzo,“Perspectives on Personality and Political Behavior,” in Personality and Politics, edited by Gordon J. Di Renzo (New York: Anchor Books, 1974), pp. 3–28. 159 Notes *ch09-notes 9/1/04 1:54 PM Page 159 10. Interview with author. I conducted a number of interviews in both Germany and the United States with officials of both governments; the interviews were done on a confidential basis in order to encourage frankness. The official’s institutional affiliation and the date of the interview, when available, are noted. The reference is to Pope Gregory VII, who compelled the German emperor Henry IV to do penance for three days in the snow at Canossa, where he had come in January 1077 to beg for his excommunication to be lifted. 11. For an extensive and unsympathetic treatment of the Bush dynasty, see Kevin Phillips, American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush (New York: Viking, 2004). 12. See the description of the importance of the personal relationship in Bush’s dealings with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Bob Woodward, Bush at War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2002), p. 119. 13. Quoted in Elisabeth Bumiller, “A Partner in Shaping an Assertive Foreign Policy,” New York Times, January 7, 2004, p. A1. Bush was finally persuaded to meet with Schröder in September 2003.As the article recounts,“Mr. Bush, simply put, did not trust him.” 14. Jane Kramer,“The Once and Future Chancellor,” New Yorker, September 14, 1998, p. 10. 15. Jürgen Hogrefe, Gerhard Schröder: Ein Porträt (Berlin: Siedler, 2002), p. 215. 16. Interview with Foreign Office official, December 2002. 17. Kramer,“The Once and Future Chancellor,” p. 9. 18. See Hogrefe, Gerhard Schröder, pp. 199, 208. 19. Ibid., p. 207. 20. “A black swan is an outlier, an event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. Most people expect white swans because that’s what their experience tells them. A black swan is by definition a surprise.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb,“Learning to Expect the Unexpected,” New York Times, April 8, 2004, p. A27. Notes to Chapter Two 1.A chronology of the key events from September 11 through the outbreak of the war in Iraq on March 20, 2003, can be found in the appendix of this book. 2. Jürgen Hogrefe, Gerhard Schröder: Ein Porträt (Berlin: Siedler, 2002), pp. 209–11. 3. For a concise description of the Taliban–al Qaeda link, see the report of the 9-11 Commission: National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States, “Overview of the Enemy: Staff Statement 15...

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