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Chapter 9: Back to Balancing in the Middle East: A New Strategy for Constructive Engagement
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SUMMARY A new Sunni-Shi’a fault line and a significant decline in U.S. influence frame the challenge to Middle East policy for the next president . That challenge requires a return to balance-of-power diplomacy and a better balancing of interests and values to contain the Iraq civil war, strengthen the forces of moderation, prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and promote democratic reform. An expanding arc of Iranian influence extends from Tehran over Baghdad , Damascus, and Beirut. Radicals under this arc have gained strength by exploiting the United States’ own mistakes—our ineffectiveness in Iraq, disengagement from the Arab-Israeli peace process, enabling of antidemocratic forces to gain power through elections, and inability to halt Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. But the divide in the region is not a simple contest between extremists and moderates or even between Sunni and Shi’a. Because the United States is no longer dominant in the region, the next president will have no choice but to return to balance-of-power diplomacy . Recognizing the complexity of Arab allegiances, the United States will need to cement and sustain a moderate coalition that can counter Iran’s regional ambitions. Its strategy should include these elements: —A renewed effort at Arab-Israeli reconciliation, which might also generate tension between Syria and Iran 114 Back to Balancing in the Middle East A New Strategy for Constructive Engagement MARTIN S. INDYK AND TAMARA COFMAN WITTES 9 Back to Balancing in the Middle East 115 —Containment of the spillover effects of civil war in Iraq —Negotiations with Iran to attempt to head off its nuclear ambitions, including bilateral engagement to address broader concerns —Regional security arrangements to contain the Iranian threat, prevent a Middle East nuclear arms race, and, if necessary, shelter our allies under a nuclear umbrella —A political and economic reform agenda that helps create a new social contract between Arab governments and their citizens —In less secure countries, much more of an emphasis on building democratic institutions rather than on holding democratic elections CONTEXT When President Bush explained his new “surge strategy” in Iraq to the American people in January 2007, he defined the challenge to the United States that is playing out across the broader Middle East as “the decisive ideological struggle of our time. On one side are those who believe in freedom and moderation. On the other side are extremists who kill the innocent and have declared their intention to destroy our way of life.” The problem with this good-versus-evil approach to the conflicts that wrack the Middle East is that it does not describe the decisive struggle as seen by the regional players. A more effective strategy for protecting and promoting U.S. interests must start with a more precise assessment of what is happening there and then determine what the United States can and should do about it. Regional Trends That assessment needs to take account of two broad trends in the region: —An emerging struggle for power between Shi’as and Sunnis. For centuries , this sectarian rivalry has lurked just beneath the surface. Now it has broken out in full force because the sectarian killing in Iraq has fed, and been fed by, a regional contest between an Iranian-led Shi’a bloc and Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Each bloc encompasses moderates and extremists, severely complicating the effort to pursue a coherent U.S. strategy to bolster moderates at the expense of extremists. —A declining ability of the United States to influence events in the region. U.S. influence was at its height after the successful application of force: first in 1991, when it kicked Saddam Hussein’s army out of Kuwait, and then in 2003, when it toppled his regime. This influence was [3.209.56.116] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 10:25 GMT) 116 MARTIN S. INDYK AND TAMARA COFMAN WITTES magnified by the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, which left America as the world’s sole superpower. The United States’ dominance in the Middle East is now on the wane, however, sapped by failure in Iraq, war weariness at home, the administration’s determined neglect (until recently) of the Arab-Israeli peace process, and Russia’s and China’s expanding influences in the region. This loss of dominance requires a return to realism: the United States will have to create a concert of powers to counter threats to its common interests. The next president...