Big Bets and Black Swans 2014: A Presidential Briefing Book

The Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes

65 Memorandum To: President Obama From: Daniel L. Byman and Tamara Cofman Wittes Date: January 23, 2014 Subject: The Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes Summary and Recommendations Egypt has long been a U.S. ally, and its stability an important U.S. interest. The military’s forcible removal of Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhoodled government in July 2013 and the brutal crackdown that ensued are likely to further destabilize Egypt. The Brotherhood’s exclusion from politics could lead its members to give up on peaceful politics, radicalize and return to terrorism, which would pose a major setback for U.S. interests in Egypt. The negative effects could spill outside of Egypt’s heartland to Sinai and beyond its borders to Gaza, further threatening U.S. interests. American policy probably cannot prevent the radicalization of the Brotherhood , but it can seek to mitigate its effects on U.S. interests and the security of Americans. The Egyptian regime is primarily focused right now on securing its hold on power, while our interests are in the overall stability of Egypt and the region. American policy must therefore seek to prevent widescale radicalization, while also limiting the capacity of Islamist radicalism in Egypt to affect regional stability. We recommend that you push the Egyptian government far harder to allow paths for Brotherhood supporters to participate in legitimate political and social activity. You should also broaden intelligence efforts on Islamist radicalization, and focus U.S. engagement with Egypt and other Arab allies on counter-radicalization, as well as counterterror , operations. To sustain a peaceful alternative for Brotherhood supporters, you should press the Egyptian government to release from prison Islamist politicians who commit to non-violence, and to allow a range of Islamist parties to organize, compete in elections, and participate in governance. Former President Morsi is now on trial for a host of charges, some questionable, in BLACK SWANS NIGHTMARES 66 daniel l. byman and tamara cofman wittes a highly politicized environment. The United States should not make his release the measure of success for its diplomacy. But it should continue to press the Egyptian government to engage with Brotherhood figures seeking reconciliation, and should insist that Morsi receive fair treatment. U.S. officials should engage with all Egyptian politicians, including Islamists committed to non-violent political participation—even if this displeases the Egyptian government. The Egyptian government has declared the Brotherhood a terrorist organization , criminalizing membership in the group and association with it. Cairo will likely expect you to accede to this designation, although at this point it is less an empirical description than a self-fulfilling prophecy. You should make clear to your Egyptian counterparts that, absent clear evidence of violent intent and capability, the United States will not allow criminalization of the Brotherhood to bar your officials’ contact with peaceful political opponents. Background Last July the Egyptian military forcibly removed from power the elected government of Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood leader. The exact number of Brotherhood supporters is hard to gauge: though Morsi won free runoff elections with roughly half the vote, the Brotherhood’s share of the parliamentary vote was closer to 35 percent, and some smaller number of Egyptians are committed backers. By the time of the coup on July 3rd, polls showed that Morsi and the Brotherhood were increasingly unpopular. Their lack of progress in turning Egypt’s economy around and their increasingly insular and authoritarian style alienated many Egyptians. Arrests of major Brotherhood leaders followed the coup, and a brutal crackdown killed over one thousand Egyptians. U.S. calls for reconciliation and your October decision to temporarily freeze some forms of foreign aid have had little impact on what most participants view as an existential struggle for the future of Egypt. The current Egyptian regime seems determined to drive the Brotherhood out of business and/or underground. Our Gulf allies have made clear their financial and political support for the military government. Brotherhood leaders, including the ousted president, are being put on trial, violence is spreading against security forces and mainly Christian civilians, and there appear to be no prospects for a compromise that might bring Brotherhood elements back into the political system in any form. The Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes 67 The Brotherhood so far has not called its members to arms, but this could change as the government implements its effort to criminalize the group. In the past, the Brotherhood weathered its exclusion from political power...