Zhu Rongji on the Record: The Road to Reform 1991-–1997

What to Do after a Bumper Harvest

375 47 What to Do after a Bumper Harvest1 january 13, 1997 the focus of this central conference on rural work is to study the issue of what to do after a bumper harvest. this will be very important for determining how our agricultural production can achieve progress amid stability this year, and how we can promote sustained and steady growth of the entire national economy. i’d like to discuss some thoughts on several of the specific questions you’re all concerned about. 1. On How to View the Current Agricultural Situation currently, the agricultural and rural situations are truly very good. Last year, building on the significant bumper harvest of 1995, we again set a new record, and the increase in farmers’ incomes may be the greatest in the last decade. it is only because the correct agricultural policies of the Party central committee and the State council have fired up farmer enthusiasm for production, and because of the hard work of all regions and all departments that we were able to achieve such good results. the bumper harvest in agriculture and the abundance of supplies have laid a very good foundation for the smooth return of hong Kong and for the further sustainable and healthy growth of the national economy, especially for steadying prices and keeping inflation in check. how should we perceive the current agricultural situation? i think it can be described in four sentences. —With a bumper harvest, there has been a substantial improvement in the supply of agricultural goods and a significant increase in farmers’ incomes. these results did not come easily, and this achievement should be fully affirmed. 1. on january 10–13, 1997, the Party central committee and State council convened a conference in Beijing on the central government’s agricultural work. Participants included those in the Party and government responsible for agriculture and rural work from all provinces, autonomous regions, and centrally administered municipalities; those responsible for agricultural work in municipalities separately listed in national plans and at the Xinjiang construction corps; and responsible members of the departments concerned at the central government. this is the main part of zhu rongji’s speech at the conference. 376 What to Do after a Bumper Harvest —There has been a bumper harvest, but [harvests] still aren’t stable. Agricultural infrastructure is poor, and our dependence on the heavens for food hasn’t been fundamentally altered. Last year’s bumper harvest was the result of an optimal combination of many favorable factors, but it doesn’t prove that our allround agricultural production capacity has entirely reached such a level. Some factors such as large price increases for grain and fine weather in most regions cannot be present every year. —The bumper harvests did not occur across the board. Production was lower for some large items such as cotton, which decreased by 18 million dan, and oil-producing crops, which decreased by 20 million dan.2 Last year, another 32 million mu3 were planted with grain; some of these lands were planted with less cotton and oil-producing crops and more grain, so they offset each other. —We don’t have more than we know what to do with, and the grain issue still hasn’t passed the test. We must do some careful analysis of the increase in grain and not overestimate. it’s best to keep cooler heads. We currently have a bit more grain, but this is linked to the year, the region, and the structure. We have 1.2 billion people. As the population grows and people live better, the demand for grain will increase, so right now the question of a grain surplus does not exist. We can only stay clear-headed by analyzing the situation comprehensively this way. to think that agriculture has developed to a satisfactory point and that we can afford to relax would be wrong, and there is no basis for thinking so. Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and this foundation is still not yet solid. We absolutely must not reverse our understanding [of the situation] and become blindly optimistic because of bumper harvests in the last couple of years, and even less should we neglect agriculture to pursue construction projects. the central leadership has indicated that this year, agriculture should realize sustained and steady growth. it is very demanding to expect agriculture not to retreat from a rather high starting point, and to even strive for growth. this demand is also made...