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1 May 20, 2008, was a brilliant day in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital city.A cold front had blown away the clouds and pollution, and the sky was crystal clear. Fine weather was uncommon at that time of year in northern Taiwan, but it fit the political calendar well. For May 20 was the day that Ma Ying-jeou took office as the president of the Republic of China after winning a decisive victory in the election. His party, the Kuomintang (KMT), thus resumed control of Taiwan’s executive branch. Ma and the KMT promised to end the problems that had beset Taiwan during the eight years under his predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). In particular, Ma promised a new path for Taiwan’s future. Concerning China, he would replace Chen’s edgy and sometimes provocative approach with reassurance and cooperation. That was, he believed, the best way to preserve the island’s prosperity, freedom, dignity, and security. The public seemed to believe that turning the political page offered hope for a new start. China welcomed the KMT’s return to power as a “major and positive change” that created a hard-to-come-by “major opportunity.” It declared its expectation that negotiation channels, which had been largely suspended for the previous nine years, would reopen and expand the areas of cross-Strait cooperation. A senior official asserted: “The future of the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations is in the hands of the compatriots on both sides of the Strait. . . . We believe compatriots on the two sides of the Strait have enough wisdom and ability to jointly open up a new phase in the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, and jointly herald in a prosperous and thriving tomorrow of the Chinese nation.”1 1 Introduction 2 Introduction The United States also was pleased with Ma’s ascension to power. The State Department spokesman congratulated Ma Ying-jeou on his inauguration and said that Washington looked forward “to working with Taiwan’s new leaders and maintaining the vibrancy” of the bilateral relationship. Most of all, the Bush administration welcomed Ma’s initiatives to reduce tension in the Taiwan Strait, believing that his election provided “a fresh opportunity for Taiwan and China to reach out and engage one another in peacefully resolving their differences.”2 Senator Barack Obama conveyed a letter of congratulations in which he said that Ma’s inauguration“holds promise for more peaceful and stable relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, in no small measure because you have extended the hand of peace and cooperation to Beijing.”3 That Beijing and Washington saw promise in Ma Ying-jeou was a function, in large part, of their attitude toward the Chen Shui-bian administration. The Beijing leadership had believed since the mid-1990s that trends on Taiwan were building momentum in favor of de jure independence for the island, negating its position (and the traditional position of the KMT) that the territory of Taiwan was a part of the state called China. The island’s democratization after 1986 had given Taiwan independence advocates a place in the political debate, and the DPP had made independence one of its goals. Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui, the KMT president who preceded him, had, in Beijing’s eyes, taken steps that reflected a covert separatist agenda. In response, the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army was accelerated, focusing in particular on Taiwan. The PRC (People’s Republic of China) had worked even harder than before to constrain Taiwan’s participation in the international community. For its part, the United States had grown increasingly worried that political initiatives taken by Taiwan’s leaders might provoke a violent reaction from China. Even if those initiatives were not in fact designed to promote de jure independence, what mattered was how Beijing interpreted them and what actions it took in response. Washington feared also that should conflict erupt through miscalculation , it might have to intervene on Taiwan’s behalf against China, with which the United States shares economic and foreign policy interests. Now, the election of Ma Ying-jeou promised a change for the better. He had pledged that independence would not be an issue during his administration and offered other reassurances to both Beijing and Washington. The prospects of unwanted conflict declined.4 In the wake of Ma’s inauguration, Taiwan and China moved quickly to end the stalemate between them, which...

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