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vii Preface As this book was in the final stages of preparation, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan was damaged severely by a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that left its cooling systems disabled and radioactive materials leaking into the surrounding environment. The emergency received the International Atomic Energy Agency’s highest rating, a level 7, the same given to the Chernobyl disaster of 1986. At this point, the full impact remains unclear as Japanese officials continue to try to contain damage at the plant and the global nuclear energy community begins to assess the accident and lessons learned from it. What is clear is Fukushima’s immediate effect on the world’s resurgent interest in nuclear power. Japan itself announced a complete reversal of its energy policy, replacing its plans for raising nuclear energy’s contribution to electricity supply from 30 percent to 50 percent with a major commitment to energy efficiency and the accelerated development of renewable energy. Numerous other governments are now planning to reexamine nuclear energy policy and review the safety of their reactors and adequacy of their regulatory frameworks. On March 16, 2011, the European Union’s (EU’s) energy commissioner Gunther Oettinger pointed to the need for safety and “stress tests” on all 143 reactors in EU member countries. In the United States, President Barack Obama called on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to conduct “a comprehensive safety review . . . of all our existing nuclear energy facilities.” Germany has closed temporarily seven of its oldest plants and suspended a previous decision on life extensions for all of its seventeen plants. Switzerland and Italy have dropped plans to build new 00-2147-5 fm.indd 7 9/7/11 3:25 PM viii preface reactors. China, which is engaged in the world’s largest nuclear reactor construction program, says it is suspending approval of new plants and conducting safety reviews at existing plants. As all aspects of nuclear power plant construction and operation face increased scrutiny, some notable concerns will be the ability of reactors to withstand catastrophic events and seismic activity, emergency preparedness, the adequacy of backup power systems, the siting of multiple units in one location, the relicensing of older facilities, the handling and storage of spent fuel, and liability in the event of an accident. The examination of these issues and detailed assessment of the events at Fukushima will almost certainly result in new policy and regulatory revisions, which in turn will cause delays to global nuclear expansion plans in the short term. Like the nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, Fukushima has had a strong impact on public opinion. In a U.S. poll conducted several weeks after the accident, nearly 60 percent of respondents did not think the federal government was prepared adequately to deal with a nuclear accident, and almost two-thirds did not favor building new nuclear power plants in their community (although about 70 percent thought nuclear plants in operation were safe). In Europe about half of those polled in France, Germany, Spain, and Britain were “more concerned” about nuclear safety after the accident. Even before the Fukushima disaster, the much-heralded nuclear “renaissance” was already facing financial, regulatory, and logistical challenges in the industrialized world. High up-front capital costs had emerged as the principal obstacle in expanding nuclear capacity, especially for investor-owned utilities in the United States and Europe. Just days before Fukushima, John Rowe, chairman and chief executive officer of Exelon Corp., the largest U.S. nuclear generator, had said that nuclear energy would not become competitive in the next decade largely because of cheap natural gas. In Western Europe, the only two nuclear plants under construction are both behind schedule and over budget. Now that Fukushima has brought safety concerns to the forefront, the risk premium in the cost of nuclear power is bound to rise. Fukushima will have less of an impact on nuclear power expansion in emerging markets, however, where three other considerations come into play. First, energy and development challenges are more daunting. According to the International Energy Agency, 80 percent of the growth in global electricity consumption between 2008 and 2035, and nearly all of the increase in global CO2 emissions, will take place in developing countries as they endeavor to support economic modernization, population growth, urbanization, and a growing middle class. To meet rising electricity demand while also lowering CO2 emissions, these countries will have no alternative but to keep nuclear energy on the table as a...

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