Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War

Chapter 7: Somalia

Somalia has been plagued by civil war for decades, and for the last 15 years has been a failed state. In addition to horrific levels of suffering in Somalia, this war has at times involved several of Somalia’s neighbors and even sucked in the United States and other members of the international community. Over time, international terrorists linked to al-Qa‘ida have also become involved in the conflict and Taliban-like actors have become more powerful. Today, the Somali crisis remains unresolved: anarchy reigns,while its neighbors meddle and radicalism grows. The sad experience of Somalia illustrates many of the problems that may plague Iraq in the future. The conflict produced massive refugee flows and parts of the country in effect seceded. Over time, Somalia became intertwined with international terrorism . Throughout the war, Somalia’s neighbors intervened, both because they feared that the Somali conflict was stoking radicalism at home and because they saw opportunities to gain dominance in their once-powerful neighbor—interventions that usually proved disastrous for the states involved. Finally, Somalia also suggests the risks of half-measures for the international community. The United States, working with the United 7 Somalia 165 1379-1 ch07 4/16/07 11:48 AM Page 165 Nations, tried both pure humanitarian missions and a limited military intervention , both of which faced severe problems. Overview Since 1991, one million people have died and an estimated two million Somalis have been displaced out of a population that is probably just over ten million.286 Today, perhaps one million Somalis live outside Africa—labor is Somalia’s primary export. Some of the deaths occurred directly in clan-onclan clashes. Many, however, occurred because the civil strife caused the collapse of Somalia’s economy and agriculture, resulting in one of the worst famines of the twentieth century. In contrast to many other cases of civil war, Somalis are united along ethnic and religious lines—85 percent of those living in Somalia identify themselves as Somalis and almost all are Muslims. But this religious and ethnic unity masks deep clan and tribal fissures. Major clans include the Darod, Hawiye, Issaq, Dir, Digil, and Rahawayn, all of which have multiple sublineages.287 The chaos that engulfs Somalia to this day became evident to all in 1991. After more than two decades ruling Somalia, the president, General Mohammed Siad Barre, fell from power in January 1991. Siad Barre had been trying to put down clan-based insurgencies that had plagued the country since the late 1980s—these insurgencies had fed off the simmering unrest and violence Somalia had suffered since at least 1977, and the strife in general involved both Cold War superpowers, with Siad Barre switching allegiance from the Soviets to the United States in 1977.288 Siad Barre’s government was brutal, and tens of thousands of Somalis died in the fighting. As clan-related violence surged, Siad Barre became derided as“the mayor of Mogadishu.”289 As the Cold War wound down, and U.S. support for his regime ebbed, Siad Barre’s government fell. A new government, led by Ali Mahdi Muhammed, claimed its place but was not recognized internationally. After Siad Barre’s fall, the army quickly dissolved into rival factions loyal to former commanders or clan-tribal leaders.290 Soon the central government collapsed entirely. General Mohammad Farah Aideed of the United Somali Congress became the de facto ruler of Mogadishu, having dislodged government troops from the capital, while 166 case study: somalia 1379-1 ch07 4/16/07 11:48 AM Page 166 other warlords occupied different parts of the country. The resulting chaos led to an escalation in hostilities among rival clans and warlords and ultimately a civil war. As a result, Somalia has remained “stateless” to this day. It lacks a functioning executive or judicial branch, and its parliament is weak.291 The Somali economy collapsed in tandem with the Somali state in 1991. Although Siad Barre’s regime was corrupt, brutal, and repressive, it did initiate significant public works programs and dramatically increased public literacy rates. It also drew on superpower aid to keep the economy afloat. Today, the lack of stability has scared away foreign investment and doomed economic growth. Few Somalis enjoy something as basic as safe drinking water, and adult literacy has declined considerably since 1991. The early 1990s marked the darkest period in Somalia’s recent history. A famine...