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Chapter 14: From Event to Theory: A Summary Analysis
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American elections are grand-scale rituals of legitimation . Historically, all political systems have had to settle the question: Who has the right to rule over others? In the past, many monarchs were believed to rule by divine right. But by the later eighteenth century, the ideology of equality demanded a different rationale. When leadership status was no longer conferred by ancestry but by ballot, the people had to have a basis for determining trust. In the fledgling United States, as de Tocqueville pointed out, that became the function of religious discourse. Politicians quickly grasped that policy promises were insufficient without the invocation of divine sanction. Thus God-talk became and has remained a staple of American political campaigns. It is one part, perhaps an inevitable part, of the way we legitimate choice. George W. Bush absorbed this lesson during his father’s 1988 campaign. Observing the Reverend Pat Robertson in Iowa and South Carolina, the younger Bush allegedly said, “I can do that; I can talk that language.” And he could. He had recently been born again and was a regular in Bible study. Religious discourse came readily to his lips. A few years later, these qualities helped to make him an irresistible candidate for governor of Texas in the eyes of Karl Rove. From Event to Theory A Summary Analysis David C. Leege 14 259 Bill Clinton shared Bush’s affinity for religious language, despite the many differences in their backgrounds. Early in life, Clinton found solace in his Sunday school and Baptist church choir, escaping an oppressive alcoholic stepfather. His religious side became almost an alter ego for a youth who learned early to compartmentalize. As a result, he too could address the voters freely with religious language that suggested he was one of us—worthy of our trust. Whether facility with religious language on the stump is sincere or strategic is in some respects irrelevant. It is part of the script and biography we have come to expect of our candidates and an increasingly important part of many campaigns.1 In the 2004 election, which is the focus of this book, religious language proliferated. Religious denominations divided in their partisan loyalties. Cultural conflict was sharp over certain issues. But these facts alone do not mean that electoral choice in 2004 was “a matter of faith.” Rather, as Sunshine Hillygus (chapter 4), Scott Keeter (chapter 5), and Barbara and Jan Norrander (chapter 8) elaborate, for many, choice reflected other dominant issues—terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, and Social Security. Nevertheless, faith may have been compounded within issues of foreign, defense, or economic policy. Choice may have been influenced by religious reference groups or affinity rather than a creedal dimension of faith. Finally, mobilization and turnout of religious groups may have been more important to the understanding of 2004 than vote choice itself. The essays in this book suggest a complex research agenda. In this chapter, I sketch the contours of this research agenda by formulating and applying broader theories to the findings and puzzles embedded in the book. In the manner common to voting behavior specialists, I first address the importance of understanding turnout and then discuss the importance of understanding choice. This discussion highlights a number of useful theories and concepts, such as issue publics, social categorization, relative deprivation, reference groups, social networks, contextual effects, the two-step flow of influence, attitude constraint, political marginalization and social displacement , anticipatory socialization, and dual reference groups. In addition, I examine measurement issues, particularly the evangelical bias in devotional measures, proto-theory about religions of fear and religions of hope, and suggestive findings from cognitive science. 260 DAVID C. LEEGE 1. Like the first decade of the twenty-first century, the early nineteenth and late nineteenth century were expansive times for religious discourse and religious impact in presidential campaigns , according to ethnohistorians. Kleppner (1970); Swierenga (1990). [34.230.68.214] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 00:37 GMT) The Importance of Understanding Turnout Several chapters refer to Karl Rove’s 2001 speech to the American Enterprise Institute, in which he bemoaned the fact that only 15 million evangelicals voted in the tight 2000 election, compared to the 19 million the Bush camp had expected. In preparation for 2004, he promised to devote special efforts to mobilizing evangelical Christians. According to Scott Keeter (chapter 5) and David Campbell and Quin Monson (chapter 7), these efforts succeeded. As Keeter says, “The proportion of evangelicals voting for...