China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower

Introduction by Cheng Li

xv Introduction A Champion for Chinese Optimism and Exceptionalism cheng li To see ourselves as others see us is a rare and valuable gift, without a doubt. But in international relations what is still rarer and far more useful is to see others as they see themselves. Jacques Barzun China perplexes the world. The country’s rapid rise to global economic power poses an important set of questions regarding how one should perceive the transformation of the international system in light of this epochal change: —Is China on track to become a new superpower? If so, how will this transform the global economic and political landscape? —Will this ongoing power shift be comparable in scale to the rise of Europe in the seventeenth century or the rise of America in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries? —Will the world witness increasingly intense competition between the United States, the existing superpower, and China, an emerging superpower? Could it even lead to the outbreak of what international relations scholars call a hegemonic war?1 —Might a new cold war take shape as China, a Leninist one-party state, comes to rival the West in the decades ahead? Will China present a military The author thanks Sally Carman, Eve Cary, Sean Chen, and Jordan Lee for their very helpful comments on an early version of this introductory chapter. 00-0487-2 fm.indd 15 3/22/11 4:00 PM xvi introduction and ideological challenge to the West, as the Soviet Union did during most of the latter half of the twentieth century? —Conversely, should the rise of the world’s most populous country be seen as an auspicious development, able to fuel global economic growth and contribute to a more balanced and stable world order? At this point there are no definitive answers to these questions, and increasingly sophisticated assessments of China’s quest for superpower status emerge over time.2 This type of analysis is also difficult, as the real and substantive impact of China’s rise on the international system will depend on many factors. To a large extent, China’s own economic and political trajectories —as well as the country’s popular aspirations and demographic constraints —are the factors that will determine the role that China adopts. The momentous socioeconomic transformation propelling these changes has not occurred in an intellectual vacuum. In fact, over the past decade strategic thinkers and public intellectuals in China have engaged in fervent discussions of the nature of China’s ever-increasing integration into the world and the country’s road ahead. Unfortunately, English-language studies of present-day China have not adequately informed a Western audience of the dynamism of the debates within China and the diversity of views concerning its own future.3 In such a rapidly changing and complex world, it would be enormously valuable for the decisionmakers and analysts in the West to broaden their perspective and “see others as they see themselves,” as the distinguished historian Jacques Barzun wisely suggests.4 The international community’s discourse on the implications of a rising China will increase its sophistication if it pays greater heed to how Chinese intellectuals perceive and debate the responsibilities that China may assume in the future. In particular, the American China-watching community would be much better informed if it were more familiar with the contemporary strategic discourse of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The Influence of Hu Angang in the Chinese Discourse on China’s Rise Arguably no scholar in the PRC has been more visionary in forecasting China ’s ascent to superpower status, more articulate in addressing the daunting demographic challenges that the country faces, or more prolific in proposing policy initiatives designed to advance an innovative and sustainable economic development strategy than Hu Angang, the author of this volume. His strong influence on the Chinese intellectual and policy debates concerning the country ’s future is especially evident in three respects: 00-0487-2 fm.indd 16 3/22/11 4:00 PM introduction xvii —For over two decades Hu has been forecasting China’s socioeconomic and demographic development and has also established a popular index of comprehensive national power. In his 1991 book, China: Toward the 21st Century, Hu accurately forecast that China would emerge as a global economic giant sometime in the first or second decade of the twenty-first century , surpassing France, England, and Germany.5 He...