China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower

6. Science, Technology, and Innovation

95 chapter six Science, Technology, and Innovation Today’s China is much different from China circa 1978. The country’s rapid reemergence and renaissance has propelled the PRC into a new era. Several centuries ago the European renaissance was ushered in by a proliferation of science and culture. The use of printing technology to spread ideas and knowledge led to social change, urbanization, globalization, technical revolution, and eventually the Industrial Revolution. The same can be said of China’s modern renaissance, which has unfolded as the country’s population has expanded. China’s renaissance is characterized by several important trends. They include the accelerated absorption of scientific knowledge (mainly derived from North America, Western Europe, and Japan); the provision of strong incentives for indigenous Chinese innovation; the extensive utilization of new technology such as mobile phones, computers, the Internet, and broadband to efficiently spread knowledge, technology, information, and culture; and the PRC’s open participation in economic globalization and international competition. China entered into a golden age not only in economic development but also in the realms of science and technology.1 The country has not only become the biggest modern success story in economic development but has also created a miracle in the development of science and technology, transforming the country into a strong innovative power in these domains.2 By 2020 China will be an innovative country and the largest knowledge-based society in the world, certain to be making major contributions to human development. 06-0487-2 ch6.indd 95 3/22/11 4:02 PM 96 science, technology, and innovation Catching up in Science and Technology How does knowledge reconfigure human society? What will China look like sixty years from now? One must keep these questions in mind when considering China’s modern-day renaissance.3 Creativity, innovation, and invention in the fields of science and technology (S&T) have transformed Chinese society from a stagnant and lagging traditional agricultural society to one transitioning toward a knowledge-based economy with impressive achievements in innovation. Of the factors influencing economic development globally, knowledge is playing an increasingly important role. Numerous studies of knowledge as a mechanism for economic growth have led to the construction of new economic growth theories and a series of endogenous growth models. Knowledge has become the most important factor in interpreting the disparities of economic growth among countries and regions.4 In the knowledge-based twenty-first-century economic race, knowledge will no doubt continue to be central. Knowledge resources are, therefore, the most important resource for promoting economic development in a given country or region. Conversely, low levels of knowledge resources will inhibit the successful development of a country or region.5 The world is composed of more than 200 countries. Among them, 11 have populations of at least 100 million, but only two have at least a million scientists and engineers engaged in research and development (R&D). The first is China (1.82 million in 2009) and the second is the United States (1.41 million in 2007).6 Similarly, China and the United States are the only two countries with a university-educated science and engineering labor force that exceeds 10 million: in 2009 China had 20 million such workers, while in 2007 the United States had 16.6 million.7 China’s human capital in the realm of science and technology will allow it to become one the world’s largest innovative, or knowledge-based, societies. Power in Science and Technology and Methods of Measurement Against the backdrop of the increasingly fierce global economic competition and the globalization of science and technology, improving one’s strength in S&T is not only a development opportunity but also an unavoidable challenge . Every country must accrue power in S&T. No advance means retreat, and so does a slow advance.8 06-0487-2 ch6.indd 96 3/22/11 4:02 PM science, technology, and innovation 97 But what exactly is S&T power? How do we define it, and what are its implications ? It is a concept that is difficult both to define and to analyze quantitatively . In 2002 my colleague Men Honghua of the Central Party School of the CCP and I studied the comprehensive national power of five large countries: China, India, Japan, Russia, and the United States. We defined comprehensive national power as the ability to pursue a strategic goal through purposeful action. Our definition of comprehensive national power included eight strategic resources and twenty...