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CHAPTER ONE. THE GROWING ASIAN MIDDLE EAST PRESENCE
- Brookings Institution Press
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3 CHAPTER ONE THE GROWING ASIAN MIDDLE EAST PRESENCE ASIAN COUNTRIES HAVE TRADED with their western neighbors for centuries. Today, however, as a result of the emergence of China and India as world economic powers and the growth of other Asian economies, the ties between Asia and the Middle East have increased to an unprecedented extent.1 The signs can be seen everywhere. All around the Arabian Gulf, hotels, banks, schools, and shopping centers are managed by Asian expatriate workers, who also provide most of the region’s manual labor. Without Asian labor, the oil-rich economies of the Gulf would collapse. Many of the vast construction projects in Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and other city-states are supervised by South Korean companies. Most of the automobiles and trucks on the street are Japanese or Korean. The endless procession of tankers that sail from the huge ports of the Gulf carrying oil and liquefied natural gas is destined increasingly for the Asian market. Infrastructure projects, including new roads, railways, seaports, airports, gas and oil pipelines, and undersea communication lines, are expanding in both the Middle East and Central Asia, making access between the two regions easier and cheaper. These trends suggest that, absent a protracted global recession, the Asian presence in the Middle East will continue to grow significantly over the coming decade. However, the strategic implications are far less clear. To what extent will major Asian countries such as China and India be drawn into the complicated, volatile geopolitics of the Middle East? What roles will they take on? How will intra-Asian rivalries play out? And how will 4 INTRODUCTION Asia’s new powers interact with the countries that traditionally have dominated the region—notably the United States? With the exception of Indian and Chinese purchases of military technology from Israel, and Asian arms sales to the countries of the Gulf, the big issues of war, peace, and security in the Middle East have largely remained outside Asia’s domain. Will that always be the case? Those are the questions that drive this book. THE KEY ASIAN PLAYERS Asia’s involvement in the Middle East affects a huge swath of countries, including Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and, more indirectly , the countries of Central Asia. All are influenced in some way by the scramble for Middle East energy, the huge amount of money that Middle East oil and gas producers have received and invested, and efforts to seek alternative energy supplies and supply routes. However, four countries merit particular attention owing to their economic and potential military prominence: India, China, Japan, and South Korea. Over the next thirty years, the economies of India and China are expected to surpass that of the United States in size (although as a result of population growth, their per capita GDP will remain relatively low), giving their governments increased regional and global clout.2 As India and China grow, Japan will be left behind. Nonetheless, Japan is likely to remain a key Asian power, given its close ties to the United States and its growing assertiveness in its relationship with China. Moreover, Japan’s energy needs will keep it tied to the Gulf. Similarly, South Korea, while even smaller than Japan, is already deeply engaged in the Middle East, especially in the energy sphere. Lacking domestic oil reserves, South Korea is the world’s fifth-largest importer of oil and the eleventh-largest importer of liquefied natural gas.3 In addition, South Korean construction companies have been hired to build oil refineries, petrochemical plants, offices, and infrastructure across the Middle East. Although South Korea’s relations with the region have focused on energy imports and construction, efforts have been made to pursue cooperative relations in other sectors as well. INDIA The Indian subcontinent has had close commercial ties with the Gulf for centuries, and India today has managed to cultivate good working [3.95.2.54] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 07:12 GMT) THE GROWING ASIAN MIDDLE EAST PRESENCE 5 relationships with all the countries in the Middle East, including Israel. While economic interests have provided the basis for many of those relationships , India has also taken on a modest military role. The Indian government has participated in Middle East peacekeeping operations since 1956, when it contributed troops to the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF), which was established following the Suez crisis. Currently 672 Indian solders make up part of the United Nations...