Climate Change and Forests: Emerging Policy and Market Opportunities

Chapter 3. History and Context of LULUCF in the Climate Regime

The subject of land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) was introduced in the run-up to the third Conference of the Parties (COP 3) in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at a very late stage in the negotiations that resulted in the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol. The discussion was hedged with a serious lack of understanding of the subject and a shortage of reliable estimates of existing and potential emissions and removals in the forest sector. This resulted in confusion and opposing positions, and as a result the decisions reached in Kyoto were vague and internally inconsistent. A period of intensive study and debate followed, which led to the creative interpretation of rules, modalities, and guidelines to operationalize what was thought to have been agreed upon in Kyoto. An onerous and complex set of rules was finally adopted at the seventh COP in Marrakech (2001) and at the ninth COP in Milan (2003).1 Once the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, all these decisions were formally accepted by the COP, which also served as the first Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Kyoto Protocol in Montreal in 2005. Since Kyoto, significant insights have emerged regarding the role “sinks” play in the global carbon budget and the potential role of forests in mitigating climate change and contributing to sustainable development, particularly in developing countries. These insights have gradually created a new context in which the role of forest sinks under a future climate regime could be shaped to effectively contribute to the mitigation of climate change and to a more sustainable use of natural History and Context of LULUCF in the Climate Regime eveline trines 3 33 resources. In this chapter I reflect on the negotiations context at the time of the Kyoto conferences and offer some new insights and a number of possible “lessons learned.” The Significance of the Sector The role of LULUCF in the global carbon cycle is significant. Since the industrial revolution approximately 270 gigatonnes of carbon (Gt C) have been emitted as CO2 into the atmosphere through fossil fuel burning and cement production, and about 136 Gt C as a result of land-use change, predominantly in forest ecosystems .2 Tropical deforestation accounts for one quarter of global carbon emissions. On the other hand, significant potential exists for economic greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the agricultural sector.3 Table 3-1 sets out a range of potential GHG reductions for the year 2030 at different prices for a tonne of CO2 equivalent (CO2e).4 The overall economic mitigation potential in the forestry sector can be estimated in the range of 2,000–4,000 megatonnes (Mt) CO2 per year against all prices.5 Considering these numbers, the overall economic mitigation potential in agriculture and forestry can be regarded as significant in comparison with total global CO2 emissions (excluding agriculture and forestry) of 20,000–25,000 Mt CO2 per year. The LULUCF sector can be considered part of the “problem” but also potentially part of the solution. Despite relative low costs and many co-benefits of this sector, its potential is barely tapped, owing to a number of types of barriers. A large proportion of this mitigation potential lies in developing countries, or those with economies in transition. For instance, 80 percent of the total global agricultural mitigation potential is found in developing countries.6 The Origin and Nature of the LULUCF Agreement In Kyoto in 1997, parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to “Quantified Emission Limitations or Reduction Commitments” (QELRCs) for industrialized countries and countries with 34 eveline trines Table 3-1. Total Potential Reductions for all GHGs for the Year 2030a Price per t CO2e (U.S.$) Reduction in Mt CO2e 0–20 1,900–2,100 0–50 2,400–2,600 0–100 3,100–3,300 a. Total biophysical potentials for 2030 are 5,500–6,000 Mt CO2e. The biophysical potential is the same as the technical potential and is the potential that could be achieved on the land available if there were no economic or other barriers. economies in transition that would reduce total net greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 5.2 percent.7 The countries are listed in Annex I of the convention (they are the so-called Annex I Parties), and the QELRCs are included in Annex B...