The International Politics of the Persian Gulf

3. Security Dilemmas in the Contemporary Persian Gulf

50 Security Dilemmas in the Contemporary Persian Gulf F r e d H . L aw s o n Central to the study of international relations is the concept of the security dilemma. This concept can be formulated in two complementary ways. On one hand, it implies that in an anarchic environment, states enjoy no obvious , unproblematic path to safety. Instead, the steps that any country takes to maximize its own security prompt others to respond by implementing measures that leave it no better off, and sometimes in a considerably worse position, than it was at the outset.1 On the other hand, any policy that a state adopts in an attempt to protect or advance its strategic interests generates direct, but unintended, consequences that could be handled more effectively through a much different kind of policy. As a result, there turns out to be no single, straightforward course of action that a government can pursue in order to guarantee the security of its territory , population, or economy from external threat. Unfortunately, the term “security dilemma” is most often deployed in a loose or simplistic fashion. Instead of examining the dynamics of the irresolvable dilemma(s) that states confront when dealing with one another in an anarchic arena, observers of world politics tend to use “security dilemma” as a synonym for “security problem” or “security challenge.” Richard Russell, for instance, asserts that in August 1990 Iraq’s “bid to usurp the Gulf balance of power triggered an acute security dilemma for regional powers, including Iran and the other Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf.”2 Jamal al-Suwaidi describes “the Gulf security dilemma” as “a complex set of interactions among regional and extraregional states that poses a range of formidable obstacles on the road to lasting [regional] Security Dilemmas in the Contemporary Persian Gulf | 51 stability.”3 James Russell notes that “strategic, regional and domestic factors are all combining and overlapping to create a profound security dilemma both for the [Saudi] regime and the nation.”4 And Gawdat Bahgat observes that “Saudi Arabia and the other GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states have no easy option in the intensifying dilemma over Iran’s nuclear ambition.”5 Many other such examples could be adduced. In this chapter, I explore how a more rigorous notion of the security dilemma sheds light on crucial aspects of international politics in the contemporary Persian Gulf. I lay out four fundamental dilemmas with regard to security that overlap with one another to drive relations among states in this pivotal part of the world. The first might be called the classic security dilemma, in which governments choose whether or not to allocate resources to programs that might increase their security relative to others. The second involves what Glenn Snyder calls “the alliance dilemma,” whereby states work out how to manage relations with allies and adversaries simultaneously. The third entails the trade-off that many regimes in the Persian Gulf face between relying on outside powers for protection and maintaining domestic political stability. Finally, Gulf states face a paradoxical choice between forging strategic partnerships with external patrons and keeping the region insulated from global rivalries and disputes. Each one of these decisions poses a true dilemma. In all four cases, neither one of the available options results in a sustainable solution to the problem at hand. Thus none of these security challenges can in any meaningful sense be “resolved.” They can only be mitigated or managed for a limited period of time before other, related problems arise. Furthermore, the dynamics that are associated with these four dilemmas generally end up leaving all parties worse off than they would have been if they had been able to refrain from making a choice in the first place. The conjunction of these four security dilemmas severely diminishes the prospects for peace and stability in the Persian Gulf for the foreseeable future. The Classic Security Dilemma States in the Persian Gulf confront the fundamental choice of whether or not to carry out what Robert Jervis calls “security-producing programs.”6 Given the anarchic nature of the regional arena, every Gulf state is forced to look out for its own interests; no overarching authority exists to provide security either for 52 | Fred H. Lawson individual countries or for the area as a whole. Yet it is not at all clear how the Gulf states can best secure their interests vis-à-vis one...