Russia: The Challenges of Transformation

Foreword

xi Foreword Craig Calhoun For seventy years, Western policy makers and social scientists obsessed anxiously over the Soviet threat. For twenty years after the collapse of the USSR they have underestimated the importance of Russia. It is time to move past both exaggerated anxiety and relative neglect. Likewise, since the collapse of the Soviet Union Russian intellectuals themselves have vacillated between overstated assertions of the country’s power and importance, and insecure catalogs of unfavorable international comparisons highlighting its weaknesses and problems. Again, understanding Russia today demands moving beyond these misleading extremes. And understanding Russia is crucial to understanding what sorts of futures are open on a global scale. Russia is a major power. Its territory and its natural resources are huge. Though its military was disrupted and damaged during the post-communist transition—not least as equipment was stolen and sold abroad—it remains a nuclear power. After a wrenching transformation from communism to capitalism , Russia’s economy is extremely uneven; massive profits haven’t translated into either widespread economic opportunity or enough investment in new technology and other long-term sources of growth. But the Russian economy is nonetheless one of the world’s largest—and larger in purchasing power parity than nominal values would suggest. It has great growth potential. The Russian state is beleaguered by its own transitional problems but has achieved considerable stability. Some leaders call for modernization and others for a new nationalism, but there is little doubt that most share xii Calhoun a commitment to economic development led by a strong state. Russia still faces enormous challenges in achieving stable economic growth, in delivering social services, in maintaining security throughout an ethnically diverse and far-flung territory. But how Russia faces these challenges is not just a local question, it is a question of global significance. This makes the current book both timely and important. In it, a group of leading Russian intellectuals and social scientists join with front-rank researchers from around the world to examine processes of social, political, and economic transformation in Russia. Some of these processes are pursued as an active project, often under the label of “modernization.” This is sometimes articulated as a more scientific and internationally oriented counterpart to nationalism. The two are not sharply opposed, however, and the authors here show how political challenges and ambitions interact with agendas for institutional reform and economic growth. At the same time, the chapters make clear that neither politics nor economics alone holds the key to Russia ’s future, since questions of social inequality and participation, and more generally of social reproduction, will also be decisive. Part of the contribution of the book is, indeed, to show how these three dimensions are inextricably interconnected. At the same time, the authors do not shy away from critical perspectives on challenges facing Russia, both in its domestic policies and in its international relations. Indeed, there is no likely future in which Russia ’s global context will not be a basic factor in its domestic affairs. Likewise, Russia’s domestic successes and failure’s will inform what kind of international actor it is and whether it will be a force for stability or disruption on a global scale. It is appropriate that this book is published as part of the Possible Futures series in which distinguished social scientists explore factors that shape ways in which global order—or disorder—may develop over the coming decades. The Return of Geopolitics Russia is one of a small number of states that will play leading roles in an increasingly multilateral—or more worryingly, multipolar—world. U.S. hegemony is in decline, and with it five centuries of EuroAmerican global domination. But neither the United States nor Europe will fade from global power. Indeed, the United States remains the world’s leading power. Its hegemony may decline slowly or more precipitously; in either case, the precise Foreword xiii way in which it adapts to a less dominating role will be crucial. How much European countries will act in concert and how much as separate nationstates also remains to be seen.The experiment in European unity is echoed in other regional blocks; at the same time, countries distant from each other are developing new models for cooperation, both in international organizations and in bilateral relationships. If the end of hegemony is not to be the beginning of chaos, cooperation among major powers will be vital...