Turkey’s European Future: Behind the Scenes of America’s Influence on EU-Turkey Relations

6 Global Implications: American Foreign Policy in Turkey’s Neighborhood

128 | 6 Global Implications American Foreign Policy in Turkey’s Neighborhood Another facet of indirect American influence on EU-Turkey relations pertains to US policy in Turkey’s neighborhood, its implications for Turkish foreign policy and how these shape European approaches to Turkey. In view of the broad scope of this text, this chapter concentrates on a confined set of US foreign policy initiatives in Turkey’s northern and southern neighborhoods since the early 1990s. In the Middle East, it addresses the implications of the first and second wars in Iraq and US democracy promotion policies. In Eastern Europe, it analyses the repercussions of the NATO interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo and the US’s energy diplomacy. Both independently and through their impact on Turkish foreign policy, US actions in these areas have indirectly shaped European views of Turkey. Taking the cue from chapters 4 and 5, this chapter begins by mapping American foreign policies in the above-mentioned areas, tracing the implications these have had for the evolution of Turkish foreign policy. As will be argued below, the US is only one of many drivers of Turkish foreign policy, whose principal determinants are, predictably, domestic. Turkey, in other words, is very much an agent in its own right in its neighborhood. Yet to the extent that American policy in Turkey’s neighborhood contributes to shaping Turkish policy and presence in the region, the US influences the broader context in which European debates about Turkey are conducted. The second part of the chapter addresses the European reactions to US policies in Turkey’s neighborhood, exploring the effects on Europe of American material, ideational, and discursive expressions of power in and around the region. American Foreign Policy in Turkey’s Neighborhood | 129 Mapping the Evolution of US and Turkish Policies in the Neighborhood The 1990s began with two parallel shocks in Turkey’s neighborhood: to the north, disintegration and violence in the former Soviet space and Yugoslavia ; to the south, the first Gulf War and the ensuing launch of the ArabIsraeli peace process. In both theaters, the US played a pivotal role, which had monumental implications for Turkish foreign policy. American policies in the Balkans, in the energy realm, in the Middle East, and in the field of democracy promotion have shaped considerably Turkey’s relations with its neighbors. The United States, Turkey, and the Western Balkans As war raged in the Balkans in the early 1990s, the US first intervened to broker the Bosnian-Croat federation in March 1994.1 It then intervened militarily through NATO’s Operation Deliberative Force, targeting BosnianSerb forces and infrastructure following the massacres of Srebrenica and Markale in 1995. Thereafter, the Clinton administration stepped in to mediate the Dayton accords in December 1995, which gave birth to the union between the Bosnian-Croat federation and the Republika Srupska. After the war, the US remained active in the region through its financial assistance and its command of NATO’s Implementation Force (IFOR) (1995–96) and Stabilization Force (SFOR) (1996–2004), until the latter gave way to the European mission EUFOR in December 2004.2 Washington also took the lead in Kosovo, first by brokering the short-lived 1998 ceasefire and the 1999 Rambouillet accords,3 and then by mobilizing NATO against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in March–June 1999, despite the absence of a UN mandate. In the aftermath of the air strikes on the FRY, while playing second fiddle to the EU and its member states, the US has remained engaged in Kosovo through economic assistance and its presence in NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR). During these years, Washington actively sought and encouraged Turkey’s role in the Balkans, particularly in the military realm (Bağci and Kardaş 2004). Despite minor differences—regarding attitudes towards Bosnian Serbs—American and Turkish interests largely converged (Uzgel 2001). Moreover, for the US, Muslim Turkey’s participation in NATO initiatives in the Balkans was critical to reassure the Muslim Bosnian and Kosovar populations of Western intentions (Kirişci 2001b, 137). 130 | American Foreign Policy in Turkey’s Neighborhood At the political level, in the first half of the 1990s, the State Department and the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs coordinated efforts to broker a constitutional agreement in Bosnia. In 1993, Ankara facilitated the reconciliation between Bosnian Muslims and Croats, which culminated in the Washington Agreement in 1994. In 1996, President Süleyman Demirel met Bosnian...