Moving Working Families Forward: Third Way Policies That Can Work

11. The Politics of Reform

192 | 11 The Politics of Reform Having formulated policies that are based on sound assessments is one thing; to legislate them is another. In the November 2010 election, the outcome created a divided government. In one sense, it makes the recommended centrist policies more likely. This is what happened after the Republican victory in 1994. After the Gingrich-led Congress overreached, centrist policies were enacted. One difference this time has been the increased partisanship among elected officials. Moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats have become a reduced share of Congress and are less likely to form an effective bridge for centrist legislation. Partisan politics often lead legislators to emphasize issues that will help them with their political base rather than form bipartisan alliances around sound policy initiatives. To go against the political base may serve the nation but not necessarily political ambitions. This was the sacrifice Lyndon Johnson and other southern Democrats had to make when they supported civil rights legislation. More often, politicians must determine their priorities. While sympathetic to a number of policies, they may fail to support some that conflict with their ability to pursue the ones that have a higher priority. This was certainly one of the reasons why, a decade ago, supporters of the Simplified Family Credit were unable to mount a successful legislative campaign. While there was broad bipartisan sympathy for this policy initiative, no legislator saw it as a priority. For Democrats, there was no group in the core constituency that lobbied for it; among Republicans, it was not something President George W. Bush sought when he took office. Financing new initiatives can also be an obstacle, especially during a period of large deficits. In order to pass the Bush-era income tax policies, Congress had to label them “temporary” reductions to be rescinded in 2011. In December 2010,PresidentObamaandCongressextendedallofthetaxcutsforanothertwo years. Hopefully, when Congress revisits this issue, it will consider more comprehensivetaxreforms .Ifthisoccurs,itismorelikelythattherecommendations madeherecouldbeconsideredassubstitutesforaportionoftheBushtaxcuts. The Politics of Reform | 193 Figure 11.1. Seasonal employment ratio for school-aged workers, 2006–2010 35 40 45 50 55 2007 2010 2009 2008 2006 July May Teenage Employment This book has documented the dramatic drop in teen employment over the last decades. Between 1978 and 2007—two years of low national unemployment —teenage males saw their job-holding rate fall from 56 to 37 percent. The current economic slowdown has intensified these downward trends. The grim situation teenagers currently face is reflected by changes in the ratio of employment rates of teenagers to those of young adults aged twenty to twenty-four. While the employment rate of young adults has deteriorated, the continued decline of this employment ratio (figure 11.1) indicates that it has deteriorated far more for teenagers. Looking at (presummer) May rates, the ratio has declined each year, from about 42 percent in 2006 to 34 percent in 2010. Even summer employment has given less of a stimulus to teen employment. The July employment ratio has declined continuously from 52 percent in 2006 to 39 percent in 2010.1 In June 2010, only about one in four sixteen- to nineteen-year-olds held jobs, down from 38 percent in June 2007. This collapse of teen employment is a symptom of the more general problem teenagers face. This book has highlighted the particularly devastating collapse of black teen employment rates and the fear that it will re-create the disconnectedness that led to such bleak 194 | The Politics of Reform outcomes during the 1980s. This concern has led many analysts to demand that the government do more for young black men, and we join them. The lack of jobs not only harms earnings and work experience of young people but also can affect family formation. Conversely, rising female employment rates have been linked to the reduction of black teenage pregnancy rates. Employment seems to give these women the financial independence that enables them to withstand pressure to engage in risky sexual behavior. This concern for improving teen employment within the black community should not lead us to ignore the plight of white teenagers. By some measures they have been at least as harmed by the employment collapse as their black counterparts. In June 2007, the black and white teen unemployment rates were 31.0 and 14.2 percent, respectively, yielding a ratio equal to 2.18. While both official rates increased, the black rate increased by a smaller percentage than the white...