Political Contingency: Studying the Unexpected, the Accidental, and the Unforeseen

Contents

Contents Introduction: Contingency’s Challenge to Political Science 1 Ian Shapiro and Sonu Bedi part i Roots of Contingency 1 From Fortune to Feedback: Contingency and the Birth of Modern Political Science 21 David Wootton 2 Mapping Contingency 54 Andreas Schedler 3 Resilience as the Explanandum of Social Theory 79 Philip Pettit part ii Contingency’s Challenge 4 Events as Causes: The Case of American Politics 99 David R. Mayhew 5 Contingent Public Policies and Racial Hierarchy: Lessons from Immigration and Census Policies 138 Jennifer Hochschild and Traci Burch 6 Region, Contingency, and Democratization 171 Susan Stokes part iii What Is to Be Done? 7 Contingency, Politics, and the Nature of Inquiry: Why Non-Events Matter 205 Gregory A. Huber vii Shapiro_pi-viii 7/17/07 3:08 PM Page vii 8 Modeling Contingency 222 Elisabeth Jean Wood 9 When Democracy Complicates Peace: How Democratic Contingencies Affect Negotiated Settlements 246 Courtney Jung 10 Contingency in Biophysical Research 266 Robert G. Shulman and Mark R. Shulman Contributors 279 Index 283 viii Contents Shapiro_pi-viii 7/17/07 3:08 PM Page viii ...