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199 14 Issues of Energy Security and the Indian Ocean Region aparajita biswas Energy is likely to be at the heart of a major transformation of the global political scenario in the next few years. The post–Cold War world order that saw the fundamental changes in the mid-1980s is again on the threshold of a major change. Whereas the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the intertwined association of globalization and capitalism shaped the contours of international relations in the mid-1990s, the outset of the 21st century will see oil as the most likely catalyst of change. The energy security issue assumes paramount importance in the oceanic regions of the world, which, besides being richly endowed with natural resources, are also the source of a large portion of the world’s production of hard minerals, like manganese and hydrocarbons. A simple definition of energy security, one that was more or less consensual before the 1990s, was “enjoying sufficient supplies at an acceptable cost.” However, the concept has lately been at the center of a highly controversial debate, some stressing the “supply” element, others the “cost.” The first concept of energy security might be thought to be “realist” or “strategic,” since it is viewed mainly as a struggle to control the sources of a strategic energy resource, i.e., oil. According to this approach, since oil is a scarce, highly priced, and geographically concentrated commodity, it can be used as a “weapon” of blackmail in the international scene. Thus, proponents of this approach recommend energy selfsuf ficiency or, at least, the diversification of supply sources and of energy mix, and the establishment of reserves to help face a sudden tightening of supplies. However, this strategic approach has been challenged by the “liberal” school of thought on energy security, which made its presence felt during the 1980s. According to their view, given the regular discovery of new oil fields, the growing role of the non-OPEC producers, and the development of hedging instruments such as the futures market, oil is becoming less strategic and should be considered as a normal commodity. Thus, government intervention would be desirable only in a situation of market disruption. As such, state intervention would be legitimate only in the basic regulation of the market, information gathering and diffusion, research and development, and international cooperation. The two approaches presented above share some important characteristics. Both are supply-oriented, focused on oil, and state-centric. However, the rise in environmental awareness, the development of transnational terrorism in the 1990s, and new schools of thought in the field of international relations have recently produced a new, nontraditional perspective on energy security. For example, Stoett and Pretti argue that energy security should be assessed at all the different steps of the energy cycle: production, transportation, and waste. Advocates of such an approach thus encourage the development of a new energy paradigm that will be both more secure and cleaner than the actual model of energy development (Stoett and Pretti 2003). Keeping the above approaches in mind, this chapter addresses the salient security concerns associated with the issue of energy, which has assumed colossal importance in recent years. An attempt has been made to examine and assess this issue by means of a regional geographical analysis, with the Indian Ocean Region being the focal point. Change in the Pattern of Energy Consumption Since the 1990s, the world has witnessed a significant shift in energy consumption patterns. The share of developing countries in global energy consumption has increased noticeably since the 1970s. In 1971, Asia—including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Pacific region— accounted for only 14 percent of the total world demand for energy. Today its share has doubled to 28 percent. In fact, Asia has emerged as the largest oil-consuming region in the world, one percentage point ahead of North America. In 2000, South Asia accounted for approximately 3.9 percent of the world’s commercial energy consumption—up from 2.8 percent in 1991. By 2010, the energy use in developing Asia (including China and India, but excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand) is projected to surpass consumption of all of North America (Horsnell 1997). According to the World Economic Outlook, Asia’s share of oil in the global total will continue to increase and reach 35 percent by 2020. The increase will be evident mainly in China, India, and Southeast Asian countries. In...

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